Earning Preview: Coinbase Global, Inc. Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 0.40%, and institutional views are cautiously bullish

Earnings Agent11:57

Abstract

Coinbase Global, Inc. will release its quarter results on February 12, 2026 Post Market. This preview summarizes consensus, company guidance proxies, segment dynamics, and prevailing analyst perspectives derived from recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for top line, margins, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus indicates Coinbase Global, Inc.’s current-quarter revenue estimate at USD 1.87 billion with estimated year-over-year growth of 0.40%. Forecasts imply EBIT at USD 0.41 billion with an estimated year-over-year decline of 16.38%, and adjusted EPS at USD 0.68, reflecting an estimated year-over-year decline of 62.27%. Forecast detail suggests the main business will hinge on trading activity and subscription and services resilience, with outlooks emphasizing spreads, volumes, and custody fees amid crypto market turnover. The most promising segment appears to be subscription and services, supported by recurring fees and custody revenue; last quarter this segment generated USD 746.72 million with strong momentum, though discrete YoY growth detail is limited in the returned dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Coinbase Global, Inc. reported total revenue of USD 1.87 billion, a gross profit margin of 85.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 433.00 million, a net profit margin of 24.12%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.50, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 335.71%. A notable highlight was a positive revenue surprise versus consensus, with actual revenue of USD 1.87 billion exceeding the estimate by USD 71.05 million. Main business contributions included trading revenue of USD 1.05 billion and subscription and services revenue of USD 746.72 million, complemented by USD 75.71 million from other activities.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Trading Activity and Take-Rate Dynamics

Trading remains the backbone of Coinbase Global, Inc.’s revenue profile, and quarter-to-date expectations revolve around spot and derivative volumes across retail and institutional cohorts. The forecast revenue near USD 1.87 billion implies stable to slightly higher turnover compared with the prior quarter, but margin sensitivity is notable as forecast EBIT declines to USD 0.41 billion and adjusted EPS to USD 0.68. The trajectory of gross profit margin will depend on fee realization and mix: higher retail participation typically supports a stronger blended take rate, while heavier institutional flow compresses take-rate but stabilizes throughput. Crypto price volatility can lift volumes but also incentivize fee competition; if pricing remains rational and liquidity healthy, trading could deliver mildly expanding revenue even with flatter spread capture.

Coinbase’s trading business may also reflect the interplay of stablecoin conversions, spread capture on retail swaps, and the availability of advanced products. A higher share of retail volumes tends to incrementally lift revenue per dollar traded, but the reverse is also true when institutional participation increases. Given the forecast for EPS compression year-over-year, operating expense phasing and incentive costs could offset top-line stabilization; watch for commentary on marketing cadence and product-driven fee promotions that may influence transaction margins. Finally, regulatory clarity around listed assets and product scope can influence tradable universe breadth; more listings and accessible staking-like alternatives can sustain user engagement even if headline token prices consolidate.

Most Promising Business: Subscription and Services Durability

Subscription and services, which generated USD 746.72 million last quarter, continue to look promising due to recurring fee streams from custody, staking-related services where available, and blockchain rewards distribution mechanics. This segment is less tied to episodic volatility than pure trading and can smooth revenue across cycles, which is important given the forecasted EBIT decline. The durability of custody fees linked to institutional inflows, along with potential indexation to assets under custody, can help offset softer trading take rates. If the asset base remains healthy, subscription and services could achieve sequential resilience and potentially modest year-over-year growth, supporting margins thanks to scale efficiencies.

Investors should monitor any changes in staking economics or network reward distributions that affect net revenue recognition, especially after any policy or rule adjustments. The degree to which Coinbase Global, Inc. can expand custodial relationships with institutions and product breadth in services—such as prime brokerage features, compliance tooling, and data services—can enhance attach rates. A sustained trajectory in subscription and services could mitigate earnings volatility, contributing to steadier gross margin performance even as total revenue is forecast near-flat year-over-year.

Stock Price Drivers: Volatility, Mix, and Operating Leverage

Near-term stock price drivers for Coinbase Global, Inc. will likely be crypto market volatility and the mix of retail versus institutional trading volumes. Elevated volatility tends to lift transaction revenue but can pressure fee realization if competition intensifies; consensus for EPS at USD 0.68 suggests operating leverage may be constrained this quarter. Operating expense discipline and headcount or vendor cost management can influence the extent of EBIT compression relative to revenue trends. If subscription and services deliver stable growth, the company could maintain a high gross margin near last quarter’s 85.87%, though net margin will be sensitive to sales and marketing pacing and product investment timing.

Another driver is the regulatory environment and product availability—clarity tends to increase user confidence and institutional participation, while adverse developments can dampen activity. Product mix shifts toward derivatives and advanced retail features could reshape revenue composition; derivatives can scale volumes but require risk controls and may affect take-rate profiles. Guidance commentary on expense trajectory and capital allocation may influence sentiment if investors see pathways to defend EPS even with modest revenue growth.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary suggests a cautiously bullish tilt, with more positive previews than negative. Supportive views emphasize resilient subscription and services revenue and healthy custody pipelines, while acknowledging EPS compression due to operating expense and mix effects. Several well-known institutions have projected stable revenue around USD 1.87 billion and pointed to potential upside if retail engagement lifts volumes late in the quarter. Positive arguments focus on high gross margin sustainability, incremental operating efficiency, and recurring revenue scaling that can cushion near-term volatility. The cautiously bullish camp underscores that if trading volumes remain broadly consistent and custody inflows continue, Coinbase Global, Inc. could meet or slightly exceed revenue expectations while managing EBIT headwinds through tighter cost control. Skeptical notes exist, but the balance of commentary leans toward the view that the company’s diversified revenue base and fee discipline position it to navigate the quarter’s volatility with limited top-line downside risk.

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