Recent data indicates that as tensions between the U.S. and Iran drive oil prices higher, public concern over inflation in the United States has intensified sharply. Search interest for the term "inflation" on Google has now exceeded the peak levels seen during the high inflation period of 2022. The data shows that the average daily search volume for the term "inflation" has reached 5.64 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. Concurrently, the highest search volumes are for the terms "tariffs" and "oil prices," with the latter surging by 1009.6% year-on-year, reflecting that energy costs have become the primary source of price pressure concerning the public. Since the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz in late February, the global benchmark Brent crude oil has surged from around $70 per barrel to nearly $126 at one point. U.S. gasoline prices have risen from $2.98 per gallon to $4.18, with diesel nearing its historical high of $5.59. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for March has climbed to 3.3%, marking a two-year high. Reports indicate that the year-on-year increase in the April CPI has further widened, with rising oil prices and semiconductor costs continuing to be passed on to consumers. The International Monetary Fund has revised its U.S. inflation forecast for 2026 upward to 3.2%, while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has made a more substantial upward revision to 4.2%. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for April has fallen to its lowest level since records began in the 1950s, with the public expecting prices to rise by approximately 4.8% over the next year. The resurgence of inflation also brings political pressure to the Trump administration, potentially impacting Republican prospects in the November midterm elections. Analysts suggest that investors focus on bond ETFs to hedge against inflation risk.
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