Apple futures experienced a rebound from lower levels to close in positive territory yesterday, with a notable uptick in late trading.
In terms of market data, the Apple 2610 contract closed at 7,574 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 69 yuan or 0.92% from the previous session.
Spot prices in key production areas remained stable. In Shandong's Qixia, the price for 80# grade one/two late Fuji apples held steady at 3.25 yuan per jin, while in Shaanxi's Luochuan, the price for 70# and above semi-premium late Fuji apples was unchanged at 3.75 yuan per jin.
Recent market information indicates that inventory movement in apple-producing regions is faster in the east and slower in the west, with conditions generally stable. In northwestern areas, sales of farmers' stock have largely concluded, while overall transaction volume for trader-held supplies remains subdued. In Shandong, traders are sourcing cost-effective, partially-red fruit, with increased procurement from e-commerce platforms and for export. Farmers' lower-priced stock is moving smoothly at current prices, but high-quality fruit is scarce, and holders are firm on their asking prices.
Market Analysis
The main apple futures contract staged a recovery yesterday after testing lower levels, closing higher with significant late-session strength, indicating a modest rebound from recent lows.
In production areas, Shandong has seen increased buying from e-commerce and export channels, with standard-grade fruit moving well at current prices and premium fruit quotes remaining firm. In the northwest, farmers' stock sales are essentially finished, while trader-held inventory is moving slowly. The new season's bagging process is concluding, with weather conditions normal, sustaining expectations for a yield increase.
In consumption areas, demand is being diverted by fresh seasonal fruits, leading to tepid terminal consumption, with traders restocking based on immediate needs.
Regarding inventory, nationwide cold storage stocks continue to decline and are at low levels for this time of year. However, there is a significant divergence in the quality of remaining supplies. Amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand, the market is expected to maintain a pattern of low-level volatility in the near term.
Trading Strategy
Neutral.
Key Risks
Insufficient improvement in terminal consumption; demand diversion by fresh seasonal fruits; slowdown in inventory drawdown pace; downward pressure from new season production increase expectations.
Jujube futures continued their weak trend yesterday, closing lower after a volatile session.
For market data, the Jujube 2609 contract closed at 8,590 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan or 1.04%. In the spot market, the price for Hebei Grade One Ash Jujube remained unchanged at 7.80 yuan per kilogram.
Recent reports indicate that accumulated temperatures in the main Ash Jujube production regions are generally higher than in recent years, advancing the growth period by about half a month. Recent temperatures have been below average, with heavy rain to rainstorms reported in several main production areas, warranting close attention to flowering, fruit setting, and weather conditions.
On June 22nd, arrivals at the Hebei Cui'Erzhuang market were limited, consisting of both off-grade and finished products, with traders purchasing small amounts based on demand. The Guangdong Ruyifang market received two truckloads, with prices varying based on quality, resulting in average transaction volume as downstream clients bought according to their needs.
Market Analysis
The main jujube futures contract trended lower yesterday, continuing its weak performance.
In the Xinjiang production region, accumulated temperatures are high, advancing the phenological period. Recent rainfall and cooling in many areas have increased weather-related disruptions, with fruit setting performance yet to be fully assessed.
In consumption areas, arrivals in Hebei and Guangdong are low. During the traditional off-season, traders are purchasing based on demand, leading to light transactions and stable spot prices.
Inventory levels in sample warehouses remain high year-on-year, with a slow drawdown pace. High inventory coupled with weak demand continues to pressure futures prices, with limited support from weather disruptions. The market is expected to remain in a pattern of low-level volatility in the short term.
Trading Strategy
Neutral.
Key Risks
Lackluster terminal consumption; pressure from potential supply increases in consumption areas; slow drawdown of high inventory; risk of new season fruit setting falling short of expectations.
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