January 26: In the gold market last week, international gold prices surged nearly $400 to close higher, almost hitting the $5,000 target that had been projected as early as last October. Currently, bullish momentum remains stable, and the full extent of positive factors has yet to materialize, suggesting that the bull market's strength is more robust than anticipated. Consequently, the $5,000 level is merely a psychological milestone, and it is highly probable that prices will challenge even higher levels within the year, potentially reaching the $6,000 mark.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the week higher at $4,615.41 per ounce, immediately recording the weekly low of $4,615.08. It then embarked on a continuous rebound and strong rally, breaking through a key trendline resistance on Tuesday to unlock further upside potential. Despite brief pullbacks and consolidations along the way, bulls ultimately maintained dominance, extending gains into Friday's session to touch a new all-time high of $4,989.34. The metal settled steadily at $4,982.08, representing a weekly trading range of $395.27 and a gain of $388.01, or 8.45%, from the previous week's close of $4,594.07.
Driving the movement, risk-off demand initially fueled and sustained a gap-up opening and subsequent rise early in the week, spurred by former US President Trump's tariff warnings against several European nations concerning the Greenland dispute, leading to a key resistance breakout on Tuesday. Although prices retreated on Wednesday and Thursday as Trump downplayed threats related to Greenland and Iran and withdrew tariff warnings, ultimately, his renewed warnings of "major retaliation" if Europe were to sell off US assets, among other statements, rekindled market risk aversion and heightened uncertainty. This, combined with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, collectively reignited gold's appeal, propelling prices to a strong and steady weekly close.
Looking ahead to this Monday (January 26): International gold opened higher at $5,005.58 per ounce and continued its advance, duly validating the view expressed last year that gold would reach at least $5,000 by 2026. A weaker opening for the US Dollar Index, coupled with the IMF's report that the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell below 60%, signaling diminished dollar appeal, and a weekend escalation in geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, continue to bolster gold prices. During the day, attention can be paid to US economic data such as the November Durable Goods Orders monthly rate and the January Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Market expectations lean towards these being negative for gold, but the anticipated pressure is likely limited. Driven by weekend risk developments—including Trump's statement that the US would assert "sovereignty" over the area containing the US military base in Greenland, the arrival of a US aircraft carrier strike group in the Indian Ocean, Iranian officials announcing their armed forces are on full alert, and US Senate Democrats vowing to block Homeland Security funding, raising the risk of another government shutdown—these factors are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the short term. Therefore, a bullish outlook remains for the week, with potential entry points watched around the support of the Bollinger Band upper line and the 5-day moving average.
Fundamentally, according to Zhang Yaoxi's remarks: As of this January, gold has surged over 16%. This was initially triggered by Trump authorizing military action against Venezuela to oust the Maduro regime, escalating geopolitical tensions in Latin America. Subsequently, the initiation of an investigation into Fed Chair Powell by the Department of Justice, seen as political pressure to force faster interest rate cuts, heightened market concerns about the Fed's policy independence. Following this, threats of additional tariffs against the EU, using the pretext of purchasing Greenland, reignited fears of transatlantic trade friction. These factors collectively propelled the strong rally in gold prices. Looking forward, these drivers are unlikely to reverse in the short term. Furthermore, the year remains within the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle; persistently declining interest rates will significantly erode the appeal of low-risk assets like government bonds and money market funds, indirectly benefiting gold demand. Currently, market expectations, influenced by Trump's political pressure, suggest the Fed might cut rates by a further 50-75 basis points in the first half of 2026, which would continue to provide support for gold. Moreover, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the subsequent comprehensive financial sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, including the freezing of Russia's overseas dollar and euro reserve assets, the logic of global central bank reserve allocation has been fundamentally altered. This has driven a significant surge in central bank gold purchases. According to World Gold Council data, the People's Bank of China added 280 tonnes to its gold reserves in 2025, marking the 18th consecutive month of increases, bringing total reserves above 2,500 tonnes. The Bank of Russia has increased the share of gold in its reserves to 28%, far exceeding the average for global central banks. This accumulation by central banks worldwide not only directly increases fundamental demand for gold but also sends a strong bullish signal to the market, further boosting confidence. Finally, judging from historical bull market cycles, gold bull markets are often characterized by long durations and significant gains. The current uptrend shows no signs of termination. Technically, while gold has broken to new highs, it has also breached key trend resistance, once again hinting at the opening of a new bull market phase. Therefore, this is not merely a new high but potentially another starting point for the subsequent bull run. Thus, based on the above, current and future prices are expected to be continuously supported by a combination of factors including geopolitical risk concerns, currency depreciation expectations, the rate-cutting cycle, central bank accumulation, and technical prospects. These are likely to drive prices further towards the $5,500-$6,000 range, or higher, within the year.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold opened the month with a powerful rally, continuing to trade above the trendline resistance, recovering the retreat seen in December, and persistently setting new highs. This directly negates the previously anticipated topping pattern. If this momentum holds for the month without forming a significant bearish reversal pattern like an inverted hammer, it will further open new bullish territory for the year, potentially yielding gains exceeding 30%, targeting the $5,500-$6,000 zone. Conversely, if the month closes with a bearish reversal pattern back inside the trendline, the market may merely enter another prolonged period of sideways consolidation, creating fresh entry opportunities. On the weekly chart, last week's strong surge pushed prices outside the upper Bollinger Band, and they continue to trade outside it this week, suggesting a risk of a corrective pullback. However, the upper Bollinger Band now acts as support; a retreat to this level would present another buying opportunity for the bullish view. On the daily chart, since breaking through the ascending trendline resistance, gold has continued its strong rebound, with bullish momentum intensifying, indicating a valid breakout. The market is now firmly advancing into new bullish territory, with the former ascending trend resistance having turned into support. The strategy remains to buy on dips based on this support, anticipating continuously new highs. For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas for reference; specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,998 or $4,975; Resistance levels to watch are around $5,060 or $5,110. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $103.35 or $101.70; Resistance levels to watch are around $107.00 or $108.70.
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