Gold Breaks $5,000, Just the Beginning? UBS Sees S&P 500 at 8,400 by Year-End, Heralding Era of "Dual Bull Market"

Alan Rechtschaffen, a senior portfolio manager at UBS Global Wealth Management, has expressed optimism towards U.S. stocks even as gold prices have surged past $5,000 per ounce. In a recent interview, Rechtschaffen argued that high gold prices and a continuing equity market rally are not mutually exclusive, firmly maintaining that multiple transformative drivers will propel the stock market higher before the year concludes.

The strategist forecasts a baseline year-end target of 7,700 points for the S&P 500 index. Under a more optimistic scenario, should market conditions align favorably, Rechtschaffen believes the index has the potential to reach between 8,300 and 8,400 points.

Rechtschaffen identified the so-called "three major opportunities" driving the market upward: artificial intelligence, longevity technology, and electrification. These transformative themes are expected to benefit not only the creators of the technology but also end-users across a wide range of industries.

While acknowledging that many investors are turning to gold as a hedge against social unrest and other uncertainties, Rechtschaffen remains steadfast in his conviction that risk assets and safe-haven assets can appreciate simultaneously. He stated, "However, we do not believe that a high gold price of $5,000 per ounce is inconsistent with higher stock markets. Gold is being used as a hedge by a significant number of investors, which is precisely why the price has broken through $5,000."

It is understood that on January 26, 2026, global commodity markets witnessed a milestone moment as both spot gold and COMEX gold futures prices shattered the psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce, setting a new all-time high in financial history. Following the breach of this long-standing price ceiling, the options market did not see large-scale profit-taking; instead, it experienced an influx of even more aggressive buying. Traders are actively speculating via a significant volume of far-dated call options with strike prices ranging from $5,500 to $6,000, indicating a strong consensus among major market players regarding the "second half" of the gold bull market.