Gold and silver prices have continued to surpass market expectations in 2026. As of 10:30 Beijing time on January 26, the spot gold price broke through the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a high of $5,093.19 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 18%. Silver's rally has been even more vigorous, with its price hitting a peak of $108.622 per ounce on January 26, soaring over 51% within just 17 trading days, making it a standout investment performer. The rapid ascent of precious metals has directly ignited market investment and collection demand, leading to temporary shortages of silver products at several banks, while dedicated safe deposit boxes have become exceptionally difficult to secure.
Safe deposit boxes are in critically short supply. The robust surge in gold and silver since the start of the year has also spurred a series of derivative market phenomena. Driven by persistently rising gold prices, market demand for gold investment and storage has climbed sharply, subsequently fueling intense demand for bank safe deposit box rental services. Taking the Shenzhen headquarters branch of China Merchants Bank as an example, all of its over 8,000 safe deposit boxes are fully rented, with a current queue of 500 to 600 customers waiting to lease one. Given the branch's annual turnover rate of only 20 to 30 boxes, new customers face a waiting period of 5 to 6 years to successfully rent a box.
A branch of Bank of China in Guangzhou indicated that its safe deposit boxes are almost fully occupied, and applications now require joining a waiting list. A branch of China Construction Bank also revealed that, apart from a very limited number of the smallest-sized boxes still available, all larger-sized boxes are completely rented out, illustrating a state of extreme scarcity.
It is understood that the annual fee for small safe deposit boxes at mainstream banks generally ranges from 200 to 500 yuan, while fees for large boxes typically vary between 1,000 and 3,000 yuan.
In contrast, the more accessible silver category is experiencing widespread shortages. Observations on the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's mobile banking App show that the bank's distributed "China Dragon Silver Commemorative Coin Smart Card - The Miracle of the Dragon (Group 1)" is marked as "temporarily out of stock," and another product from the "Master National Treasure Dragon" series of silver coins is similarly unavailable.
The Agricultural Bank of China's mobile banking App also displays multiple silver products as sold out. Items such as the "2g Heritage Treasure Abundant Blessings Silver Fish," "15g Heritage Treasure Zodiac Horse Silver Pendant," and "500g Heritage Treasure Horse Zodiac Silver Bar (Second Round)" are all listed as sold out, with a service for out-of-stock registration being offered.
Within the physical precious metals investment section of Bank of China's App, silver products are mostly available for pre-order; for instance, the Panda Silver Bar (150 grams) is priced at 7,470 yuan, with shipping scheduled 10 days after order placement. Furthermore, some silver products at China CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank are also shown as having no current inventory.
Accompanying the surge in international silver prices, the net asset value of SDIC Silver LOF, the only fund in the public fund market primarily investing in silver futures, has also risen steadily. Due to purchase restrictions on the primary market (SDIC Silver LOF A-shares are limited to 100 yuan per day), the premium rate for SDIC Silver LOF on the secondary market remains persistently high. Despite the fund issuing 17 premium risk warnings or trading halt announcements since January 2026, it has struggled to eliminate the premium, which stood at 49.45% as of January 23.
The secondary market price of SDIC Silver LOF has also skyrocketed recently, climbing over 70% in less than a month since the start of 2026, following a cumulative gain of nearly 160% in 2025. Even with restrictions on large subscriptions, the fund's scale still expanded significantly in the fourth quarter. The recently disclosed Q4 2025 report shows the fund's net value increased by 62.43% during the period, with its shares rising from 5.322 billion to 9.36 billion; notably, C-share units increased by over 100% in the quarter alone. Consequently, the fund's total assets under management grew rapidly, reaching 18.944 billion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, a staggering increase of 185.31% compared to the end of Q3.
SDIC瑞银基金 reiterated that investors could face substantial losses if they blindly invest in fund shares with high premium rates. It also stated that if the premium on the secondary market trading price does not effectively decrease, it reserves the right to apply to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for intraday temporary trading halts or extended suspension periods to warn the market of risks.
Listed companies are strategically positioning themselves in gold investments. Bank structured deposit products linked to gold-related underlying assets are quietly gaining popularity. Recently, major state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and foreign banks have all intensively launched such products, with some popular items even selling out within seconds. These products generally feature entry thresholds starting from ten thousand yuan, flexible terms, and tiered returns. They range from conventional products tied to gold prices to more complex structures linked to mining company stocks, offering potential upper return limits of up to 12%.
Beyond individual investors, numerous listed companies are also opting to subscribe to gold-linked structured deposits. For instance, on January 15, JSTI Group disclosed using 90 million yuan of idle own funds to purchase a structured deposit from Huaxia Bank's Nanjing branch; this product is linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU9999 gold spot price, has a 364-day term, and offers an expected annualized return of 0.30% to 2.35%. According to incomplete statistics, at least 27 listed companies have announced participation in gold-related wealth management products through public filings, with a total involvement amount reaching 1.73 billion yuan.
Silver, performing even more impressively, is undoubtedly the "game for the brave," where bullish investors have reaped substantial profits. David Bateman, founder of the tech company Entrata, revealed on social media earlier this year that he had accumulated nearly $1 billion in precious metal purchases over the past six months, including a holding of 12.69 million ounces of silver. Calculations suggest the unrealized profit on this silver position may already exceed 250%. In his view, with the impending collapse of the global monetary system, the bursting of the credit bubble, and intensifying U.S. debt crises, physical gold and silver represent the only "life raft."
Previously, a Hong Kong-listed property service company based in Guangzhou also announced it had completed the liquidation of a 680,000-ounce silver position, realizing a profit of 247 million yuan from this transaction.
However, some institutions have suffered significant losses by misjudging the direction of the silver market. Canada's TD Securities started the year facing another loss due to shorting silver. A recent internal memo disclosed that its silver short trade was closed out after one week with a loss of $606,000, triggered by a stop-loss set at $93.15 per ounce. Reportedly, TD Securities initially established the short position at $78 per ounce, but the international silver price surged over 19% within a week, hitting a fresh all-time high of $93.70 overnight, which was the core reason for the loss. This marks the second time since last October that TD Securities has been forced to halt trading and incur losses from shorting silver. In October 2025, it established a short position when silver broke above $50 per ounce, but ultimately closed it with a loss of nearly $2.4 million.
Despite this second setback, TD Securities maintains its stance that the silver market is severely overbought. Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, pointed out that the rally in the silver market over recent months has transcended rational momentum, but a turning point might be approaching. A potential catalyst could be President Trump's decision not to impose import tariffs on silver (silver was designated a critical metal last year), which has alleviated market concerns about further tightening of supply and liquidity.
Zhu Zhigang, Chief Analyst at the Guangdong Gold Association, stated that the current price trends of gold and silver have moved beyond traditional fundamental analysis frameworks, rendering previous analytical logic inadequate for the new market realities. For the current precious metals market, the only approach is to follow the trend, and it is premature to call a top during a bull market, even after such significant gains. Geopolitical friction plays a core and dominant role in influencing precious metal prices, especially amidst the multiple uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic trajectory and foreign policy, which have left global central banks apprehensive and continuously increasing their gold allocation ratios. This core driving factor remains potent. From this perspective, there is still room for further upside in precious metals, but market volatility is also expected to intensify accordingly, requiring investors to remain highly vigilant.
It is worth noting that the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), currently stand at 16,089.98 tonnes, having decreased for three consecutive days.
Zhu Zhigang also noted that compared to gold, silver possesses lower investment-grade attributes. While investors can typically buy silver at the current market price, selling often requires accepting a discount due to less fluid circulation channels.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, emphasized that any periodic weakness in gold and silver could present potential buying opportunities, as precious metals are set to continue acting as cornerstone assets for the global economy throughout 2026, with index reweighting posing only a short-term risk.
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