CICC has released a research report maintaining an Outperform industry rating on Li Auto-W (02015). The valuations correspond to 19x/16x 2026E P/E for Hong Kong and US shares respectively. The report introduces a 2027 profit forecast of RMB 12.25 billion. Considering industry-wide sales pressure, the 2026 profit forecast is lowered by 19% to RMB 7.95 billion. The target prices for Hong Kong and US shares are maintained at HK$100 and US$26, corresponding to 29x/25x 2026E P/E and implying an upside potential of 52%/56%. The main views of CICC are as follows.
Progressing towards 2026, the firm believes that the company's past sales setbacks are already largely priced in. The company is initiating operational adjustments in the second half of 2025, and it is recommended to focus on the 2026 range-extender facelift and upgrade for the L-series, as well as the company's AI ecosystem potential in areas like AI glasses and robotics R&D.
The company plans to launch facelifted and upgraded versions of its existing range-extender models in 2026. Referencing industry trends, the primary upgrades are expected to include increasing the battery capacity per vehicle to extend pure-electric range, equipping vehicles with self-developed high-performance AI chips, incorporating rear-wheel steering, and enhancing the exterior differentiation of flagship models. The firm believes the company has consistently maintained a leading position in product definition capabilities and has effectively adjusted its product and channel strategies based on past pure-electric product experiences. Although the company may still face challenges from weak industry demand and the pre-iteration phase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, it is recommended to actively monitor the range-extender model cycle commencing in the first half of the year.
The company has recently resumed hiring for its robotics business. Previously, in January 2024, it brought in industry expert Liao Pingping as a robotics algorithms specialist, responsible for developing a wheeled, dual-arm humanoid robot for specific industrial scenarios within its factories, such as "screw tightening." According to job descriptions, the current hiring scope covers the entire process from core components to system integration for humanoid robots. From a technical standpoint, the company has remained in the top tier of intelligent driving technology R&D. Recently, in collaboration with Tongji University, it proposed SparseWorld-TC, which abandons traditional BEV and discrete tokens to achieve end-to-end 4D occupancy prediction through sparse queries and attention mechanisms, achieving several technological breakthroughs on the nuScenes benchmark. Furthermore, the company possesses ample cash on hand, potential supply chain synergies, and management's strong focus on the long-term ecosystem prospects extending from automobiles to the broader AI field. The launch of its smart glasses, Livis, and the resumption of robotics hiring both signal the company's extensive exploration and long-term pursuit of opportunities in the broader AI domain.
Risk warnings include the range-extender facelift underperforming expectations, intelligent driving advancements falling short, and intensifying market competition.
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