Recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump have further dampened market expectations for a near-term ceasefire. Combined with escalating energy supply risks, international oil prices closed significantly higher, intensifying concerns over future oil trends and inflation prospects. On Friday, Trump explicitly told media at the White House that he has "no intention of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran" and emphasized that current military operations will continue. "We can talk, but there will be no ceasefire," he stated. "You don't choose a ceasefire when you are dominating the other side." He also claimed that Iran "no longer possesses effective military capabilities" and declared that the U.S. has "already achieved victory" militarily. These强硬 comments came nearly three weeks after the conflict began, signaling that a rapid de-escalation is unlikely. Previously, Trump had indicated the U.S. could "end the war immediately" but has opted to continue military actions. Simultaneously, he again criticized NATO allies for not actively participating in securing shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and called for support from other countries, including Japan.
As geopolitical risks continue to evolve, energy market volatility has intensified. On Friday, international oil prices rose sharply. Brent crude closed up 3.3% at $112.19 per barrel, marking a fifth consecutive weekly gain with a cumulative weekly increase of 8.8%. The U.S. WTI crude April contract rose 2.3% to settle at $98.32 per barrel, though it registered a slight weekly decline of 0.4% due to contract rollover. Analysts note that Trump's increasingly强硬 rhetoric has heightened market expectations for a further escalation of the conflict, potentially including ground military operations. The market widely believes that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have significantly increased the risk of energy supply disruptions, which has become a core driver of rising oil prices.
Institutional views suggest the market is beginning to price in more extreme scenarios. Some analyses indicate that if the conflict escalates further, Brent crude could approach $130 per barrel. Under the most pessimistic scenario, involving U.S. ground operations and a conflict lasting several months, prices might even rise to a range of $150 to $180 per barrel. Concurrently, attacks on energy infrastructure have exacerbated supply concerns. Iran's earlier attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City reduced its liquefied natural gas production capacity by approximately 17%, with repairs potentially taking years. Israel's strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field have further disrupted the global energy supply landscape.
Although some signs suggest potential for de-escalation, such as Israel indicating a temporary halt to further attacks on Iranian gas fields, the market overall is still reassessing the persistence of the energy shock and its impact on the global economy. Institutional analysis points out that the market's probability weighting for a severe supply shock has increased from about 25% a week ago to approximately 50%. Against the backdrop of persistently high oil prices, concerns about resurgent inflation and tighter monetary policy are mounting. Analysts believe that if energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, it could force central banks to reconsider their interest rate hike trajectories and increase the probability of "tail risks" for the global economy.
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