Abstract
Tempus AI will report quarterly results on July 30, 2026 Post Market; investors anticipate solid top-line growth and further progress on AI-enabled product adoption and partnerships while monitoring cost discipline, mix shifts, and early commentary on the announced Personalis acquisition.
Market Forecast
Market expectations point to revenue of 379.74 million US dollars for the current quarter, implying 27.92% year-over-year growth, with EBIT at approximately -16.96 million US dollars (improving 18.32% year over year) and adjusted EPS at -0.14 (improving 42.40% year over year). There is no widely available forecast for gross margin or net margin, so investor attention will focus on revenue scalability and operating leverage signals from management.
The core business is expected to lean on continued adoption of clinical testing and the company’s expanding AI-enabled portfolio, with the product cadence and recent regulatory clearance supporting test utilization and revenue consistency. The segment with the clearest incremental upside is molecular residual disease (MRD) and related oncology testing, where the proposed integration of Personalis’ NeXT Personal platform aligns with Tempus AI’s data and clinical workflows; the genomics segment generated 261.10 million US dollars last quarter, and prior company commentary indicated strong year-over-year growth in diagnostics exiting 2025.
Last Quarter Review
Tempus AI delivered revenue of 348.12 million US dollars last quarter, up 36.12% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 63.78%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -126.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -36.17%, and adjusted EPS of -0.13, improving 45.83% year over year.
A notable highlight was a modest outperformance versus expectations: revenue exceeded the prior estimate by 2.69 million US dollars and EPS came in 0.06 better than projected, while EBIT loss narrowed versus the year-ago period. By business line, Genomics contributed 261.10 million US dollars and Data and Services contributed 87.02 million US dollars; earlier disclosures for the 2025 fourth quarter indicated diagnostics revenue growth of 121% year over year and data and applications growth of 25% year over year, providing context for the company’s acceleration into 2026.
Current Quarter Outlook
Genomics momentum and revenue durability
The revenue trajectory in Genomics remains the primary determinant of near-term top-line performance. The company’s forecast implies total revenue growth of 27.92% year over year to 379.74 million US dollars, with Genomics expected to retain the largest share based on the recent run-rate of 261.10 million US dollars last quarter. Management’s product cadence, including new test introductions and workflow upgrades, supports utilization growth while the existing customer base can drive repeat volumes. Regulatory tailwinds are a factor: the company recently secured US approval for tumor-only use of its xT CDx platform, which broadens eligibility for patients who do not have matched normal samples, potentially lifting test volume and providing ancillary data for downstream analytics.
From a unit economics perspective, the last quarter’s gross margin of 63.78% provides a starting point for assessing contribution from additional volume. Mix matters: higher-complexity tests and companion diagnostics work, coupled with automation gains in the lab network, can stabilize or expand gross margins even as the company invests in throughput capacity. Investors will monitor whether incremental volumes translate into operating leverage given that the forecast EPS is -0.14 and EBIT is -16.96 million US dollars; any signal that spending growth is slowing relative to revenue growth would be constructive. The company’s prior quarter performance beat estimates by a narrow margin, suggesting discipline in execution; sustaining that into this quarter will require continued efficiency in sample processing, payer collections, and logistics.
Commercial execution and partnerships can provide incremental lift. Earlier this quarter, the company announced an AI-powered prostate cancer risk test and expanded generative AI tools within its smart physician platform. Such launches can deepen clinical engagement and support incremental test adoption, though the near-term financial contribution is likely modest and depends on reimbursement breadth and clinician adoption. The main near-term watch items are: test volume growth trends in oncology, pricing/reimbursement dynamics, and the impact of new offerings on average revenue per test and margin mix.
Data and Applications: expanding software and partnerships
Data and Services generated 87.02 million US dollars last quarter and continues to benefit from multi-year agreements with biopharma and broader enterprise users of clinical-genomic datasets. While the current-quarter forecast does not disclose segment-level growth, forward indicators include product launches that enhance the company’s software stack and platform utility. Earlier disclosures highlighted the launch of a next-generation “agentic” AI platform for oncology drug development and expanded generative AI tools designed to accelerate decision support for physicians and researchers. Together with the recent collaboration expansion with a major pharmaceutical partner, these developments can drive higher data utilization, upsells, and renewals.
The model for this segment often exhibits favorable revenue visibility once contracts are executed, and the prior commentary around robust total contract value at the end of 2025 supports a pipeline that can convert to recognized revenue through 2026. Investors will track net revenue retention and backlog conversion; consistent execution here cushions overall results when clinical testing volumes encounter seasonality. Beyond the revenue line, software gross margins and hosting costs will be in focus; cloud infrastructure efficiency and inference cost management are central to preserving the healthy overall gross margin profile. With adjusted EPS at -0.14 on the current-quarter forecast, the path to narrowing losses depends partly on incremental software margin contribution offsetting hiring and R&D outlays.
Another catalyst for the data business is regulatory clearance and clinical adoption that expand the company’s evidence base, making its datasets more valuable to partners. The recently cleared tumor-only xT CDx use case increases the flow of clinically annotated genomic data. As more patients qualify for testing, the company can aggregate richer real-world evidence and feed its analytics and AI engines, strengthening the value proposition in data licensing and decision-support applications. The near-term objective is consistent conversion of pipeline opportunities into signed agreements that scale through 2026.
Deal pipeline and stock-price swing factors this quarter
The proposed acquisition of Personalis for approximately 1.50 billion US dollars in enterprise value is the clearest stock-price swing factor in the near term. The strategic rationale centers on integrating Personalis’ NeXT Personal MRD platform with Tempus AI’s clinical and data capabilities to strengthen longitudinal monitoring in oncology. The company indicated that cash consideration will be funded using existing cash balances and available credit facilities, which has prompted investor debate around pro forma leverage and interest expense. Although the transaction is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027 based on external commentary, near-term management updates on regulatory milestones, integration planning, and commercial synergies will influence sentiment even before financial consolidation.
Financing and capital structure developments are also in focus. Earlier this year the company issued convertible securities, and recent filings indicate insider transactions and shelf activity; markets will assess the combined impact on dilution and interest costs. While the current-quarter forecast calls for an EBIT loss of 16.96 million US dollars, further clarity on non-cash items, stock-based compensation, and potential credit facility usage would help investors model the run-rate into the second half. If management demonstrates operating leverage alongside disciplined investment and provides detail on MRD commercialization pathways, it could mitigate dilution concerns and support a rerating.
Operationally, execution risks include integration timelines for new software features and physician tools, payer behavior and average selling price stability across tests, and the pace of enterprise data deal signings. On the positive side, recent expansion of R&D collaborations and product approvals can diversify growth drivers. The company’s last quarter beat on revenue and EPS, though modest, suggests a prudent approach to guidance and cost control. This quarter’s call will likely emphasize how AI-enabled features and regulatory wins translate into sustained revenue growth while narrowing losses, consistent with the forecasted year-over-year improvements in EPS and EBIT.
Analyst Opinions
The balance of institutional commentary collected this year skews decisively bullish for Tempus AI. Multiple firms maintained or initiated positive views, including Needham (Buy, 75 US dollars target), BTIG (Buy, 80 US dollars target), Guggenheim (Buy, 60 US dollars target), and Mizuho (Outperform, 100 US dollars target). Relative to a minority of neutral stances observed in trading commentary, the ratio of bullish to bearish/neutral opinions among the identified institutional notes is overwhelmingly in favor of the bullish side.
Analysts anchor their positive stance on several identifiable drivers. Needham highlights that the proposed acquisition of Personalis strengthens Tempus AI’s MRD position and sees limited antitrust risk, with the valuation underpinned by Personalis’ growth outlook and reimbursement progress. BTIG reiterates confidence in execution and sees a path for continued revenue acceleration as AI-enabled testing and data products scale, suggesting upside as operating leverage improves. Guggenheim maintains a constructive view on the multi-year data opportunity and the company’s ability to translate clinical adoption into durable topline growth. Mizuho’s initiation frames the company as well positioned within AI-enabled healthcare workflows, with product momentum and data partnerships supporting a premium growth trajectory.
In the context of the current-quarter setup, the bullish camp is focused on three pillars. First, revenue continuity: the forecast of 379.74 million US dollars implies 27.92% year-over-year growth, and analysts expect contributions from both Genomics and Data and Services given recent product launches and regulatory wins. Second, profitability trajectory: while EPS is projected at -0.14 and EBIT at -16.96 million US dollars, the year-over-year improvements of 42.40% and 18.32% respectively support the narrative that operating leverage is emerging as volumes scale and the software mix expands. Third, strategic optionality: the Personalis deal, though not expected to close this quarter, is viewed as enhancing long-term growth in MRD, a monitoring modality that complements the company’s existing oncology footprint and data pipeline.
Analysts will be listening for management’s color on three near-term execution areas. They want to see evidence that tumor-only xT CDx approval is converting into incremental test volumes without diluting margins, updates on the commercialization of the AI-powered prostate risk test and generative AI tools within clinical workflows, and quantitative detail on data contract pipelines and backlog conversion in the second half of 2026. If the company pairs top-line delivery near the forecasted 379.74 million US dollars with commentary that indicates stable to improving gross margin from last quarter’s 63.78%, positive momentum in data deals, and a clear integration roadmap for MRD, the bullish case gains reinforcement.
Overall, the majority view anticipates that Tempus AI will deliver on revenue growth and show progress toward narrowing losses, supported by product approvals, software expansion, and strategic M&A positioning. The buy-rated institutions cited above suggest that consistent execution against these milestones could sustain confidence into the second half of the year and into the period leading up to the anticipated closing of the Personalis transaction.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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