Novo Nordisk stated on Thursday that the average weight loss achieved with oral Wegovy is significantly greater than that of Eli Lilly's recently approved competing drug, Foundayo. The Danish pharmaceutical company's conclusion is based on an evaluation of published research data and does not include any new data points. Novo Nordisk also reported that a separate analysis indicated 84% of patients preferred drug characteristics similar to Wegovy over those of Foundayo.
Novo Nordisk announced that oral Wegovy (semaglutide) demonstrates superior weight loss efficacy and better tolerability compared to the competing weight-loss drug from Eli Lilly, which received approval this week. An indirect comparison, which integrated results from previous studies, showed that oral Wegovy led to a significantly higher average weight reduction than orforglipron—the drug produced by Eli Lilly scheduled for market release next week under the brand name Foundayo. The analysis by Novo Nordisk relied solely on publicly available drug study data and did not involve new clinical trials. The company stated it will present detailed findings from this research at the Obesity Medicine Association's annual meeting next week.
According to Novo Nordisk, an independent analysis revealed that 84% of patients favored the drug profile of semaglutide—the active ingredient in both Wegovy and Ozempic—over that of Foundayo. Jamie Miller, the new Executive Vice President of US Operations, commented, "These studies further substantiate the clinical benefits of semaglutide and highlight the characteristics patients value when selecting a weight-loss medication that fits their lifestyle."
Efficacy Versus Convenience Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently promoting their respective oral weight-loss drugs, an effort widely seen as marking a new phase in the obesity treatment era. Oral formulations, serving as alternatives to injectable versions, are expected to expand the market further due to easier global distribution and greater consumer preference. Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC this week that Foundayo is more accessible and easier to incorporate into daily routines. Foundayo has no dietary restrictions for administration, whereas oral Wegovy must be taken on an empty stomach in the morning with a small amount of water, and patients must wait at least 30 minutes before eating. Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustad countered that these administration requirements would not hinder the drug's adoption. In a March interview with CNBC, he stated, "That is simply not the case." He added, "The high level of interest in this drug is because it is the most effective oral weight-loss medication available on the market."
Previous research indicates that oral Wegovy leads to an average weight loss of 16.6%, whereas patients who complete the full course of Foundayo treatment experience an average reduction of about 12.4%. Since the US launch of oral Wegovy in early January, prescriptions have surged, with over 600,000 patients starting treatment. Analysts have described it as one of the most successful drug launches in history, with initial uptake rates even surpassing those of the injectable version. However, Barclays analyst James Gordon noted on Wednesday that the growth rate for new prescriptions of the starting dose has plateaued following the initial surge. Gordon wrote in a client report, "We believe the slowdown in new prescriptions may be due to physicians awaiting the launch of Eli Lilly's Foundayo, leading some patients to delay starting treatment."
Multiple analysts indicated that prescription trends for Foundayo over the coming weeks and months will be a critical factor influencing the stock performance of both companies. RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh stated on Wednesday that market expectations for Foundayo's 2026 sales have been significantly revised downward over the past month, dropping from approximately $4 billion to $1.6 billion. He noted, "Despite pricing pressures in the GLP-1 sector, we believe there remains substantial upside potential for the segment, particularly with the expected expansion of Medicare Part D coverage later this year." A March survey conducted by the bank involving nearly 200 patients, prescribing physicians, and payers revealed that patients prefer Foundayo as their first-choice oral weight-loss medication due to its lack of administration restrictions.
Competitive Differentiation Novo Nordisk stated on Thursday that the latest research results demonstrate that oral Wegovy possesses distinct competitive advantages. As competition in the weight-loss drug market intensifies over the coming years, differentiation has become a crucial consideration. Potential market entrants are focusing on areas such as obesity-related comorbidities, weight maintenance, and improved side effect profiles. Oral Wegovy also outperforms Foundayo in terms of discontinuation rates. A cross-trial comparison released on Thursday showed that the probability of discontinuing Eli Lilly's new drug due to side effects is approximately 14 times higher than for oral Wegovy. The most common side effects of GLP-1 class drugs are gastrointestinal issues, such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea.
Over the past year, Eli Lilly's stock performance has surpassed that of Novo Nordisk's American Depositary Receipts. HSBC cautioned last month that the market size for weight-loss drugs might be smaller than previously anticipated and advised clients to reduce holdings in Eli Lilly stock—which has significantly outperformed Novo Nordisk over the past 18 months. The bank stated that market expectations for Foundayo's sales are overly optimistic and final results could be disappointing.
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