SpaceX closed at 145.47 USD, down 2.16%.
A dominant bearish tone emerged in SpaceX’s options block flow, headlined by a $5.48 million net-credit synthetic put and a $2.32 million long put. Both structures were initiated out of the money, suggesting institutional traders are positioning for downside rather than further upside. The heavy lean toward bearish structures—including bear call spreads and additional put buying—reinforces a cautious or outright negative outlook for the underlying.
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Options Indicators
SpaceX currently has an implied volatility of 52.24%, and with its IV percentile at 67.30%, current option pricing sits in the neutral range, indicating volatility expectations are neither especially cheap nor excessively expensive. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 1.19 shows implied volatility is running above historical volatility, suggesting the options market is embedding somewhat higher forward-looking movement expectations than what has recently been realized. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.60.
Large Trades
A synthetic put with a net credit of $5.48 million was the largest highlighted trade, created by selling the December 18, 2026 $150.00 call and buying the December 18, 2026 $115.00 put. With SpaceX referenced at $145.47, the short call sat slightly out of the money while the long put was also out of the money, making this a clearly bearish structure that benefits from downside in the underlying while taking in premium upfront. The use of a synthetic short rather than a simple long put suggests the trader was expressing a more conviction-driven bearish view and was willing to cap upside participation in exchange for collecting premium at entry.
A put buy worth $2.32 million was the other displayed large trade, consisting of a purchase of 2,000 June 17, 2027 $120.00 puts. With the stock above that strike at $145.47, the position was out of the money at execution, indicating a downside hedge or a directional bearish bet looking for meaningful weakness over a longer horizon. The long-dated tenor points to patience and a willingness to pay premium for extended protection, which reinforces the negative tone already seen in the larger synthetic put position.
Overall, the bulk-order flow points to a clearly bearish outlook on SpaceX. The dominant trades were centered on downside exposure through a large synthetic put and a sizeable long put purchase, while the broader block activity also leaned heavily toward bearish structures such as bear call spreads and additional put buying. Taken together, the large-trade pattern suggests institutional participants were positioning for downside risk or at least guarding against a meaningful decline rather than expressing confidence in further upside.
Strategy Reference
For traders seeking a low assignment probability on the short side, selling an out-of-the-money call above the $150.00 strike already targeted by the synthetic put—for example the December 2026 $160.00 call—could align with the bearish block flow while reducing upside risk, though sellers should still size for potential premium collection against resistance. If margin requirements are a concern, a bear put spread using the $125.00/$115.00 strikes in the June 2027 tenor offers a defined-risk alternative that echoes the large long put without the full premium outlay of a single long put position.
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