- "It is essential that we bring inflation down" in order to maintain a sustainable strong labor market and an economy that works for everyone, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday in his press conference after thecentral bank increased itskey policy rate by 75 basis points, its biggest hike since 1994.
- There are some signs of economic softening, particularly in the housing market, he said.
- The 75-bp rate hike shows investors that the Fed is serious in its mission to reduce inflation. Risks to inflation are "weighted to the upside," he said.
- Some indicators are indicating that inflation has risen, the Fed chair said.
- The committee anticipates that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate, Powell said, but he doesn't "expect moves of this size to be common." Moves of 50 bps or 75 bps appear most likely at the next meeting, he added, while emphasizing that the FOMC needs to stay "nimble."
- With inflation being as high as it is, "we feel it's helpful to provide even more clarity than usual," he said. Markets have responded and "appear to understand the path we're taking."
- "We thought strong action was needed, and we delivered it," he said. The reason the FOMC made a bigger move than 50 bps is the committee had expected inflation to show signs of flattening and that didn't happen.
- "Demand is still very hot." Especially in the labor market, the demand is significantly higher than supply, he said. "We feel there's a role for us in modifying demand."
- The Fed will have to see "compelling evidence that inflation is coming down" before it slows down on its actions.
- Fed swaps market shows a 75bp hike is not fully priced in for July, Bloomberg reported. The CME FedWatchtoolputs a 61.6% probability on a 50bp hike in July.
- "We are not trying to induce a recession," Powell said. Rather, the Fed is trying to bring inflation down to 2% while keeping the labor market strong. He also pointed out that there are many factors in inflation that the Fed doesn't have control over.
- "Overall, inflation is very strong," he said. While there's been some shifts in spending, "there's no sign of a slowdown." In addition, he commented, "Ultimately it does appear the U.S. economy is in a strong position" and will be able to deal with higher interest rates.
- On the Fed's pace of raising rates: "There's always a risk of going too far or not going far enough. It's going to be a very tough judgment to make... But the worst mistake we can make is to fail. We have to restore price stability."
- "I think we can get a softish landing," he noted. That phrasing appears to be less confident than the comments he made in May that he saw a "number of plausible paths to a soft, or softish, landing."This time, he noted, that commodity price fluctuations could "take the possibility of a softish landing out of our hands."
- On quantitative tightening, "we've communicated really clearly with the markets, and they seem to be okay with that... It seems to be understood and accepted at this point."
- "We are watching to see how much rates will affect residential investment and housing prices," he said. There's a tremendous amount of unfinished homes, but there's a very low supply of finished homes.
- Top Fed officials also expect that rate to top 3% in 2022, according to the dot plot in its latest Summary of Economic Projections
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