Nio Has Big Plans for 2022, But the Nio Stock Recovery Might Take Longer

investorplace2022-01-21

Investors in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) group Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock have been scratching their heads amidst the year-long decline. On Feb. 10, 2021, NIO stock hit a peak of $64.60 — a price that is now in the rearview mirror.

Then, Nio shares saw a 52-week low of $27.52 in late December and closed at $29.12 on Jan. 20, down 48% in the last 12 months and 4.5% year-to-date (YTD). By comparison, the S&P Kensho Electric Vehicles Index has dropped 21.6% in the past 52 weeks and 6.8% YTD.

Despite the decline in shares of many EV names, the industry is growing. For instance, new-energy vehicles (NEV) sales in China, the largest EV market in the world, is expected to exceed 5 million units in 2022. And EV sales should comprise over 30% of the nation’s auto market, reaching at least 7 million units, by 2025.

Meanwhile, Chinese authorities are reducing EV subsidies for 2022 and will withdraw them completely in 2023. Moreover, the government has recently removed a long-standing mandate and now allows for “full foreign ownership of passenger car manufacturing” in China.

Puzzled by the extended downtrend, investors of NIO stock wonder what could be in store for the company in 2022. Despite the positive industry outlook, fierce competition and stringent regulations could create further headwinds for NIO. Thus, investors might want to wait on the sidelines for the short-term.

Nio’s Q3 Performance

Founded in 2014, the China-based EV group Nio aims to differentiate itself through its battery swapping solutions, Battery as a Service (BaaS) and Autonomous Driving as a Service (ADaaS).

Management issued Q3 financial results in early November. Revenue soared 116.6% year-over-year (YoY) to 9,805.3 million RMB, or $1.5 billion. Total EV deliveries reached 24,439 vehicles, up 100.2% compared to year-ago quarter.

Net loss attributable to NIO’s ordinary shareholders came in at 2.86 billion RMB (or $443.7 million). It went up by over 140%, mainly due to the increase in operating expenses. Cash and equivalents were 47 billion RMB, or $7.3 billion at quarter end.

On these metrics, CEO William Bin Li said, “Despite the continued supply chain volatilities, our teams and partners are working closely together to secure the supply and production for the fourth quarter of 2021.”

Meanwhile, recent delivery figures point to a record delivery of 25,034 vehicles in Q4, up 44.3% YOY. Total deliveries ended 2021 with 91,429 vehicles, up 109.1% YOY. Nio is expected to report Q4 earnings in late February.

Adding NIO Stock to Portfolios

Among 26 analysts polled, NIO stock has a consensus buy rating. Also, the consensus of 25 analysts for a 12-month median price target stands around $58.43, implying an upside potential of 95% from current levels. The 12-month price estimates for the stock range between $37.74 and $87.64.

Its trailing price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios stand at 11.9 and 8.5, respectively. By comparison, these metrics for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are a P/B of 37.8 and a P/S of 24.7.

Put another way, despite the recent decline, NIO shares still look frothy by traditional valuation metrics. The same holds true for TSLA stock as well.

Yet the company gets significant attention due to its growth potential. Thus, despite the ongoing negative market sentiment, investors might want to keep the stock on their radars with a view to buy around $29, or even below.

Meanwhile, interested readers could also consider investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that also holds NIO stock. Examples include the First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ:QCLN), the Invesco PureBeta FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (BATS:PBEE), the KraneShares MSCI China Clean Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:KGRN) or the VanEck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:SMOG).

Bottom Line on NIO Stock

Currently, NIO is one of the top-selling EV manufacturers in China. It sells a number of car models including a coupe sports car and three SUV models. Since last September, Nio has been selling its ES8 model in Norway as well. The company plans to expand into five more countries in Europe in 2022 and more than 25 countries worldwide by 2025.

Also, this year management is launching two new models. The luxury sedan ET7, will be available for orders as of Jan. 20. Deliveries are expected to start by late-March. The other new model, the ET5, is a midsize premium smart electric sedan. Deliveries are anticipated to commence in September 2022.

As part of these expansion plans, a second manufacturing plant is being built at NeoPark in Hefei. The facility, which will help meet the growing demand, is expected to become operational around September 2022.

In summary, Nio has a solid product line and offers tangible growth strategies. However, NIO shares could continue to come under pressure in 2022, in part due to tougher competition, higher operational costs and regulatory risks. Given the upcoming tightening moves by the Federal Reserve, investors are also taking money off the table. Therefore, NIO stock could easily continue to slip further below $30. Long-term investors might still need to be patient.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • SN13698AAA
    2022-01-23
    SN13698AAA
    不要以爲投資“蔚來”就有未來。所有股評人和機構一致看好,也不能保證一隻股票的未來。股票評級就像善變的渣男,甜言蜜語轉眼就能變成雲煙。如果股票走勢與股評背離,寧願相信市場的真金白銀。信口雌黃不需要代價,而實盤投資卻必須承擔實實在在的後果。一個公司如果策略錯誤,就爲未來的衰敗打下伏筆,現在的失之毫釐,未來就會謬之千里。公司的實力、資產、技術水準、人才優勢都擋不住步入歧途的墮落,英特爾、IBM就是例證。公司發展,產業進步,應該因勢利導,順勢而爲。所謂“對標”,所謂“硬剛”,不過是違反自然規律的莽撞之舉,或許有短期的廣告效應和經營動力提振,長遠來講弊大於利。這些歪門邪道的功夫,絕不應該是大企業所爲。如果產品不能在中國市場迅速攻城略地,提高市佔率,就不要幻想可以在海外打出一片天地,汽車這種高價值商品尤其如此。消費者的品牌認知度絕不是華而不實的概念宣傳所能擊破的。
  • KeeBoonTong
    2022-01-21
    KeeBoonTong
    Lalala
  • lanangqupu
    2022-01-21
    lanangqupu
    WoW nice
  • Rocky2209
    2022-01-21
    Rocky2209
    Good to keep or what ?
  • Gackky
    2022-01-21
    Gackky
    let's fomo.. buy the rumours... gogogo
    • ___ _
      so u can sell sell sell [Tongue]
    • Gackky
      hey, they sell to me, i sell to them.. merry go around~~
    • Mml
      Gooooo
  • ahjo79
    2022-01-21
    ahjo79
    Ain't the whole market behaving in the same manner now? Hitting all time high in early 2021 and now all in the dips
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