August 14 — Market catalysts: The latest US CPI data for July came in fully in line with expectations, with core inflation continuing to show a moderate performance and a negligible secondary inflation effect, which helps further alleviate market concerns over inflation risks. We maintain the view that US inflation is not sticky, forecasting the headline CPI year-on-year rate will largely continue a moderate easing trend through the third quarter, bottoming out in September, before a slight rebound in the fourth quarter and a rapid decline by March next year.
We still expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady for the remainder of this year, with room for further downward revision to derivative market pricing of rate hike expectations. With US inflation data appearing mild and the probability of a September rate hike declining, gold prices have moved higher, with bullish positioning now slightly dominant. Silver's bullish share has further increased to 94%. Attention is directed to the impact of Friday's US retail sales data, known as the "terror data" in the market.
Spot Gold (London Gold): From a technical perspective, yesterday's daily chart closed with a small bullish candle. The Bollinger Bands are wide open, the KDJ indicator is poised to form a death cross, and the MACD fast line is above the slow line, but the red energy bars are gradually contracting. The broader trend remains upward-biased, with the medium-term continuing a phased upward movement. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating price is about to choose a new direction. The KDJ indicator is showing a death cross with increasing volume, the MACD fast line is below the slow line, and green energy bars are diverging. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are open, and price has chosen a new direction as expected. The KDJ indicator is showing a death cross with increasing volume, the MACD fast line is below the slow line, and green energy bars are diverging. Price has rebounded as anticipated; in the short term, focus on the rebound situation. Key support levels are at 4351, 4304, and 4265, while resistance is at 4386, 4404, and 4449.
Shanghai Gold: Focus on resistance at 951 and 965, with support at 946 and 938.
Spot Silver (London Silver): The broader trend is range-bound, while the medium-term is showing a phased decline. Price has rebounded as expected, and in the short term, focus on the rebound. Key resistance is at 69.2 and 72.5, with support at 63 and 61.4.
Shanghai Silver: The trading range is between 15,040 and 16,200, with a wider range between 14,340 and 17,250.
This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.
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