Abstract
Airbnb, Inc. will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026 Post Market, with investors focused on revenue growth, profitability trends, and forward guidance amid a travel normalization backdrop.Market Forecast
Consensus for Airbnb, Inc.’s current quarter points to revenue of $2.71 billion, an implied year-over-year increase of 12.18%, with an estimated EPS of $0.66 and EBIT of $0.34 billion; the company’s forecast framework implies continued margin discipline, though explicit gross margin guidance is not provided. Forecasts suggest revenue growth supported by stable take rates and nights booked, while adjusted EPS is projected to expand by approximately 14.10% year over year; if provided, net profit margin is expected to track mix shifts between high-season and shoulder-season quarters.The company’s core booking marketplace remains the principal revenue driver, with outlook commentary centered on nights and experiences growth and host supply health. Within the portfolio, the booking platform continues to be the largest growth opportunity by scale; last quarter it delivered $4.10 billion of revenue, growing 9.73% year over year.
Last Quarter Review
Airbnb, Inc.’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $4.10 billion, gross profit margin of 86.59%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $1.37 billion, a net profit margin of 33.55%, and adjusted EPS of $2.21, with revenue up 9.73% year over year and EPS up 3.76% year over year. Net income rose sequentially with a quarter-on-quarter change of 114.02%, reflecting seasonal strength and cost control.A notable financial highlight was EBIT of $1.63 billion, above the previously compiled market estimate, underscoring operating leverage in the peak travel quarter. The core booking platform segment generated $4.10 billion in revenue, up 9.73% year over year, benefiting from resilient demand and continued host supply expansion.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Booking Marketplace
The core booking marketplace is expected to drive the quarter with estimated revenue of $2.71 billion and EPS of $0.66, aligning with a year-over-year growth rate near 12.18%. Seasonal normalization from the prior quarter’s peak implies sequential step-down in both revenue and margin, yet structural drivers—nights booked growth, modest improvement in average daily rates, and take-rate stability—support year-over-year momentum. With gross profit margin previously at 86.59%, the model suggests a high contribution margin business that can absorb marketing and product investments while maintaining profitability.Engagement levers like flexible search features and improved host tools are poised to sustain conversion, while product mix shifts toward entire-home listings and cross-border stays can preserve ADR resilience. Investors should watch unit economics: if growth skews to lower-ADR geographies or urban categories, the revenue beat probability declines, though unit growth can compensate through volume. The key swing factor is marketing efficiency; if performance channels remain efficient and brand spend stays disciplined, operating income can track or modestly exceed the $0.34 billion EBIT estimate.
High-Potential Growth Areas within the Platform
Within the broader booking platform, offerings linked to longer stays and cross-border travel represent the largest incremental growth potential by scale. These areas benefit from a steady return of international travel and a gradual recovery in urban and city-center demand relative to leisure and rural balances. While last quarter’s $4.10 billion in platform revenue grew 9.73% year over year, mix dynamics suggest that cross-border growth outpaced domestic and that lengths-of-stay beyond one week contributed to engagement and retention.Over the near term, product enhancements that simplify host onboarding and pricing transparency can increase supply density, improving guest search results and conversion. Should cross-border corridors continue to reopen at a steady pace, the revenue trajectory can exceed the current-quarter 12.18% growth marker. Conversely, if currency volatility tightens travel budgets or if ADRs moderate faster than volume accelerates, contribution growth could align closer to consensus without notable upside.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Profitability cadence is the primary share price catalyst, particularly the relationship between gross margin durability and sales and marketing spend as the company navigates the shoulder season. Given the prior quarter’s 86.59% gross margin and 33.55% net margin, investors will parse whether the business can maintain a mid-to-high 80.00% gross margin while sustaining growth investments. A modest beat on EBIT against the $0.34 billion estimate could support sentiment.Unit growth and ADR trends will also be critical. Nights and experiences booked growth in the low-to-mid teens combined with stable ADRs would likely validate the revenue estimate. However, a mix-driven ADR deceleration or softness in urban demand could cap upside even if volumes remain healthy. Finally, forward commentary on supply elasticity and host retention into the spring travel season will influence how investors frame FY outlook and valuation.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional commentary, the majority stance is cautiously positive, with a tilt toward revenue and EPS meeting or slightly exceeding the $2.71 billion and $0.66 benchmarks and EBIT near $0.34 billion. Several well-followed sell-side analysts highlight resilient nights booked growth and disciplined brand spending as supportive of margin stability, while acknowledging that ADR normalization and regional mix could temper upside.Cited perspectives point to a constructive risk-reward profile into the print, with expectations that management reiterates confidence in demand durability and supply growth. On balance, bullish opinions outweigh bearish ones by a meaningful margin, with proponents emphasizing the high gross margin structure, scaling operating leverage into the travel season, and the potential for modest top-line upside if cross-border momentum continues. Skeptical voices focus on ADR sensitivity and macroelasticity of travel budgets, but these concerns are generally framed as manageable within the current guidance context.
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