September 29: On the previous trading day, Monday (September 28), international gold opened lower and weakened, then fell sharply to close in the red. The United States rejected Iran's proposal, and President Trump called out US media reports about "easing Iran sanctions and unfreezing funds" as inaccurate. This pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. Combined with Federal Reserve officials maintaining a hawkish stance, the US dollar index oscillating upward during the session, and surging US Treasury yields, gold prices were pressured lower. This intensified bearish momentum, and in the short term there will be a demand for a profit-taking rebound, but the weekly chart still suggests there is room for further downside. Watch for the weekly chart touching support for a bullish view, or for the monthly chart to pull back to the Bollinger Band middle line and the 30-month moving average support before re-entering medium-to-long-term bullish positions.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,278.38 per ounce, first recording an intraday high of $4,278.57, then encountering resistance and declining, continuing all the way until the early US session when it recorded an intraday low of $4,110.67, where it stabilized somewhat and consolidated, finally closing at $4,114.78. This compares to the previous Friday's close of $4,284.65, with a daily amplitude of $173.98, closing down $169.87, a decline of 3.96%.
Looking ahead to today, Tuesday (September 29): International gold opened with a initial stabilization, supported by profit-taking rebound demand and oscillating crude oil prices, with bulls narrowing and inflation pressure easing. However, the current trend remains weak, with geopolitical fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy expectations both leaning bearish for gold prices. Therefore, short-term price action will mainly be range-bound with a downward bias. During the day, attention will be on US July FHFA House Price Index month-over-month, US July S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index year-over-year, US August JOLTs Job Openings (in ten thousands), and US September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Based on market expectations and yesterday's data performance, the overall bias is strongly bearish for gold prices. Thus, today's trading strategy should still focus on selling on rebounds.
Technically, on the weekly chart level, gold prices have fallen sharply this week, moving further away from the 30-week and middle band resistance, with bearish momentum intensifying. The Bollinger Bands also tend to extend downward, suggesting further downside momentum in the future. Below, attention will again be on the ascending channel support zone of $4,100-$3,800 for a potential bullish entry. On the daily chart level, gold prices fell sharply yesterday to close in the red, with bearish momentum intensifying, Bollinger Bands expanding downward, and accompanying indicators maintaining bearish signals. There is still short-term downside demand, but the price has also moved outside the Bollinger Bands, which also creates rebound demand. Therefore, below, watch the ascending trendline support for a potential bullish entry first.
Below are preliminary long and short entry point references for intraday operations. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications:
Gold: Watch support near $4,100 or $4,065; watch resistance near $4,155 or $4,180.
Silver: Watch support near $60.15 or $59.20; watch resistance near $61.50 or $62.30.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this do so at their own risk.
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