The rally in gold and silver prices simply cannot be stopped! On January 26, the prices of gold and silver surged simultaneously to new historic highs. Spot gold broke through the critical $5,000 per ounce barrier, staging a celebratory feast in the precious metals market. Industry experts point out that factors such as a weakening US dollar credit, rigid central bank gold purchasing demand, and long-term geopolitical premiums continue to support the intact long-term upward logic for gold. If the macroeconomic narrative remains unchanged, the potential upside for gold is vast. Silver, driven by its monetary attributes and short-squeeze dynamics, exhibits higher volatility, and its upward trend is also far from over. Gold and silver posted strong, substantial gains. In the spot market, as of the time of writing, spot London gold surged 2.05% intraday to $5,090.288 per ounce, having reached a peak of $5,111.17 during the session, setting a new historical record. Spot London silver mounted an even more aggressive offensive, skyrocketing 6.06% intraday to $109.6 per ounce, briefly surpassing the $110 mark and significantly outperforming gold's gains. Futures markets followed suit with synchronized gains. As of writing, COMEX gold futures rose 2.02% intraday to $5,080.4 per ounce, after hitting a high of $5,107.9. COMEX silver futures saw their gains expand further to 7.54%, trading at $108.97 per ounce after reaching a high of $110.065. Both contracts刷新ed historical records, creating strong resonance with the spot market. Following the sharp rise in international gold prices, the price of domestic pure gold jewelry in China also climbed higher. On January 26, the price of pure gold jewelry from major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang exceeded 1,575 yuan per gram, while domestic spot gold prices also刷新ed their historical highs. The value of allocation is becoming increasingly prominent. "The current gold rally, starting from around $3,000 per ounce at the beginning of 2025, demonstrates remarkable strength and stability, reflecting profound changes in the current macroeconomic environment. Meanwhile, silver's volatility has significantly amplified recently due to a combination of factors including short-squeeze logic, tight inventories, and month-end deliveries," said Wang Weimang, Investment Manager at the Asset Management Department of Zhonghui Futures. Xia Yingying, Head of the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Group at Nanhua Futures, believes that gold's powerful breach of the $5,000 per ounce mark is not accidental. Instead, it is the inevitable result of a triple-logic resonance: short-term safe-haven demand, medium-term policy expectations, and long-term monetary credit restructuring. Analyzing from a short-term perspective, Xia Yingying noted that geopolitical risk premiums continue to ferment. Sovereignty disputes over Greenland have triggered geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, coupled with escalating US-Iran tensions, boosting global demand for safe-haven assets. "Retaliatory" statements regarding Trump's tariff threats have heightened market concerns about restricted cross-border capital flows, forcing investors to seek refuge in non-sovereign credit assets, with gold naturally favored as the traditional core safe-haven tool. From a medium-term viewpoint, the core contradiction lies in the interplay between the Federal Reserve's policy path and its independence. The market widely believes that under the sustained pressure of "fiscal dominance," the Fed may be forced to compromise, leading to increased expectations of a weakening in monetary policy independence. The continuation of an accommodative monetary cycle, resonating with concerns about fiscal deficit monetization, provides solid support for rising gold prices. In the long term, the structural weakening of the US dollar credit system serves as the core driver for higher gold prices. Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, the de-dollarization process is steadily accelerating, and selling pressure on US Treasury bonds weighs on the US dollar index, all highlighting gold's value as an allocation asset. Looking ahead, Wang Weimang pointed out that influenced by factors such as a weakening US dollar credit, rigid central bank gold purchasing demand, and long-term geopolitical premiums, the medium to long-term upward logic for gold remains intact. If the macroeconomic narrative persists, gold's potential upside is substantial. Silver, driven by its monetary attributes and short-squeeze dynamics, exhibits higher volatility, and its upward trend is also not yet over. Investors are advised to maintain a long-term allocation perspective, respond rationally to volatility, and seek stable participation opportunities within the trend. Xia Yingying forecasts that in the 2026 US mid-term election year, against a backdrop of Trump's declining support ratings, recurring geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations for monetary easing coupled with a perceived weakening of Fed independence, investment demand for precious metals is expected to continue growing, potentially driving gold prices towards the $6,000 per ounce mark. Xia Yingying recommends that investors choose different investment instruments based on their financial capacity, risk appetite, and investment experience. Comparatively, gold futures are suitable for professional investors, gold ETFs and gold mining stocks are suitable for investors with some stock market experience, while ordinary investors can participate through bank gold accumulation plans or physical gold bars. In terms of strategy, given that gold prices are currently in a "high-price, high-volatility" phase, she suggests adopting a strategy of systematic investment plans (SIP) supplemented by buying on dips, avoiding making large, single-entry positions.
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