Spot gold has broken through the $5,000 mark, setting yet another historic high.
On the morning of January 26th, the price of spot gold (London gold) surged, breaking through the $5,000 per ounce barrier for the first time. By 11:40, it had reached an intraday high of $5,093.19 per ounce, marking a gain of over 1.9% for the day. COMEX gold futures followed suit, touching $5,091.5 per ounce intraday with a gain exceeding 2%. The precious metals sector in the A-share market also strengthened. By the midday close, Xiaocheng Technology had surged over 16%, while stocks such as Hunan Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Hengbang Shares, Shengda Resources, Sichuan Gold, China Gold, and Yuguang Gold & Lead all hit the daily limit-up.
From a long-term perspective, this gold "bull market" has actually been ongoing for a considerable period. Since its low of $1,614 per ounce in September 2022, London gold has achieved a cumulative maximum gain of over 215%. After annual gains of 13.16% in 2023 and 27.23% in 2024, the pace of increase accelerated significantly in 2025, with the maximum annual gain reaching 74.06% before closing the year with a 64.56% increase. Entering 2026, this upward trend has continued relentlessly, with the "gold bull market myth" constantly刷新历史高位, already posting a gain of over 17% for the year.
Regarding the core drivers of this gold bull market, Ming Ming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, stated that the causes are complex. Investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy are the most significant factor pushing precious metal prices higher. Additionally, factors such as downward pressure on the US economy, the stickiness of US inflation, the resurgence of deglobalization risks, and global geopolitical uncertainties have collectively contributed to the rise in precious metal prices.
On another front, the persistent wave of gold purchases by global central banks has also become a core driving force supporting this major gold bull market. According to World Gold Council data, global central bank gold purchases surged to 1,080 tonnes in 2022, doubling the historical average. Purchases reached 1,050.8 tonnes in 2023 and 1,089.4 tonnes in 2024. This buying fervor continued into 2025, with global central banks adding 634 tonnes of gold in the first three quarters alone. According to the People's Bank of China's official reserve asset data, China's gold reserves stood at 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases by the central bank. For the full year 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $155.5 billion, while gold reserves grew by 860,000 ounces.
In the view of Wu Zewei, Special Researcher at SuShang Bank, the underlying logic behind spot gold breaking through the $5,000 per ounce barrier remains highly sustainable in the current macroeconomic environment. The core support stems from four interrelated long-term structural forces: Firstly, the expected continuation of the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold. Secondly, the persistent gold-buying trend by global central banks, driven by considerations of foreign reserve diversification and "de-dollarization," provides a solid demand floor. Thirdly, lingering global geopolitical and economic uncertainties reinforce gold's safe-haven attributes. Fourthly, the expanding US fiscal deficit and debt risks undermine the credibility of the US dollar, thereby elevating gold's long-term valuation.
Wang Hongying, President of the China (Hong Kong) Institute of Financial Derivatives Investment, also believes that the factors supporting sustained, structural increases in gold prices persist. He predicts that gold prices have the potential to challenge the significant technical resistance level between $5,600 and $5,800 per ounce in the future. However, he cautioned that if large-scale profit-taking occurs among long positions, prices could potentially fall back below the $5,000 level, with strong support expected around $4,800 per ounce.
Regarding the future trajectory of the "gold bull market," Wu Zewei believes that gold prices are highly likely to maintain an overall upward trend in 2026, but the pattern may be characterized by "volatile ascension with intensified fluctuations." On one hand, core positive factors such as central bank purchases and rate cut expectations have not reversed, providing underlying support and upward momentum. On the other hand, after such substantial cumulative gains, the value proposition of gold has diminished, and market sensitivity to positive news may marginally decrease. The price movement during the year will closely revolve around the specific pace of Fed policy, US economic data, and unexpected geopolitical events, with any shifts in expectations potentially triggering significant volatility.
Wang Hongying further predicted that gold prices in 2026 will most likely continue the structural uptrend seen in 2025. Beyond support from geopolitics, central bank buying, and a weaker US dollar, soaring investment and consumption enthusiasm will further fuel price increases. He advised that individual investors, in the context of continuously setting new highs and increased volatility, should adopt a "spot mentality" and pursue稳健 investment through channels like gold ETFs, bank paper gold, and physical gold bars. For household asset allocation, he suggested maintaining a gold allocation of approximately 15% to hedge against future uncertainties and achieve inflation resistance and value preservation. Simultaneously, he discourages individual investors from blindly participating in high-leverage derivative trades like futures and options, emphasizing that risk control and buying on dips are key to稳健 investing.
"Overall, gold prices this year have the potential to challenge the important $6,000 per ounce level. However, after breaking through $5,000, the market might face a technical correction in the short term, presenting a volatile phase, while the long-term upward target remains unchanged," analyzed Wang Hongying.
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