达利欧：中国会出现牛市，不认为大宗商品有超级周期

华尔街见闻2021-03-22

3月22日晚，全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人、《原则》作者、“投资教父”瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）对话华尔街见闻。达利欧就美债收益率上升是否会终结债券40年牛市、商品是否处于新超级周期等投资者关心问题发表了他的看法。达利欧表示，目前的趋势非常清楚，中国正在崛起，人民币正在国际化，中国债券及股市在未来10年将超过西方市场。目前全球对于中国配置的水平依然较低。考虑到中国在疫情中的杰出表现，海外资金...

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Frank95
2021-03-23
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I don't think there is a super cycle for commodities","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230efb7d10083d3dae44861f5151718e","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"3月22日晚，全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人、《原则》作者、“投资教父”瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）对话华尔街见闻。达利欧就美债收益率上升是否会终结债券40年牛市、商品是否处于新超级周期等投资者关心问题发表了他的看法。\n达利欧表示，目前的趋势非常清楚，中国正在崛起，人民币正在国际化，中国债券及股市在未来10年将超过西方市场。目前全球对于中国配置的水平依然较低。考虑到中国在疫情中的杰出表现，海外资金将流向中国。\n达利欧认为，美债40年的牛市可能要结束了，目前短债不是很好的选择。考虑大国兴衰，科技及天灾都是重要影响因素。科技方面，半导体、生物科技都有很好的投资机会。未来5年网络安全也需要重点关注。\n在谈及美债收益率的快速上涨是否会终结债券40年牛市，达利欧向华尔街见闻表示：\n\n 西方国家利率都比较低，甚至为负。如果现在进行投资，投资者等上50年也无法收回本金，同时更不能满足养老基金的要求。目前债市还没有进入周期的末端，未来债券遭遇抛售投资者可能损失很大。未来几个季度美债供需不平衡加剧，通胀压力将会升高，美联储将被迫买更多国债。如果未来经济加速，美联储加息。现在无法判断美元会走弱到什么程度，但历史上可以参考上个世纪70年代的状况。\n\n对于美联储是否能够控制利率上涨，达利欧认为：\n\n 参考历史，目前美联储的印钞行为是控制的。美国的优势在于美元是全球储备货币。现在债务水平已经非常高了，印钞带来的贫富差距已经产生问题。未来投资必须投资在生产领域，而我现在没有看到。如果加息的话，股市会受到影响。投资组合必须分散程度足够高，有股票债券等，最好还是分散在全球各地。\n\n在被问及对于黄金和比特币的投资看法时，达利欧认为：\n\n 依然建议拿出5%的资金投资黄金。不建议持有现金。黄金白银依然是央行的储备手段。为了让自己的投资组合多样化的话，最好进行多方面的投资，这也包括比特币。比特币在过去10年有很大发展，但依然有很大风险。为了让自己的投资组合多样化的话，最好进行多方面的投资，这也包括比特币。过去十年比特币取得了很大的发展，但是也有很大的风险。\n\n对于目前商品是否处于超级周期的提问，达利欧认为：\n\n 要区分供需引发的通胀，现在大宗商品的上涨可能是货币通胀引发的。货币通胀通常发生在经济很弱的时候。我不认为现在存在大宗商品超级周期，现在需求依然偏弱。\n\n在被问及最喜欢中国什么资产，达利欧坦言：\n\n 投资者需要追求平衡性的投资，然后进行战术性调整，大多数情况下投资者要找到自己的平衡性，建立全天候的组合。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":353987756,"gmtCreate":1616455864475,"gmtModify":1704794240598,"author":{"id":"3573165252847286","authorId":"3573165252847286","name":"Frank95","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e83ddbb039bb0c00257b3cb7ce8da2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573165252847286","idStr":"3573165252847286"},"htmlText":"Gooood","listText":"Gooood","text":"Gooood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353987756","repostId":1103659578,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103659578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616424704,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103659578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 22:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Dalio: There will be a bull market in China, and I don't think there will be a super cycle for commodities","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103659578","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"达利欧表示，目前的趋势非常清楚，中国正在崛起，人民币正在国际化。","content":"<p>On the evening of March 22, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, author of Principles and \"godfather of investment\", talked to Wall Street. Dalio expressed his views on issues of concern to investors such as whether rising U.S. bond yields will end the 40-year bull market in bonds and whether commodities are in a new super cycle.</p><p>Dalio said that the current trend is very clear. China is rising, the RMB is internationalizing, and China's bonds and stock markets will surpass western markets in the next 10 years. At present, the level of global allocation to China is still low. Considering China's outstanding performance in the pandemic, overseas funds will flow to China.</p><p>Dalio believes that the 40-year bull market of U.S. debt may be coming to an end, and short-term debt is not a good choice at present. Considering the rise and fall of great powers, science and technology and natural disasters are important influencing factors. In terms of technology, semiconductors and biotechnology have good investment opportunities. Network security also needs to be focused on in the next five years.</p><p>When talking about whether the rapid rise in U.S. bond yields will end the 40-year bull market in bonds, Dalio told Wall Street News:</p><p>Interest rates in western countries are relatively low or even negative. If you invest now, investors will not be able to recover their principal after waiting for 50 years, and at the same time, they will not be able to meet the requirements of pension funds. At present, the bond market has not yet entered the end of the cycle, and investors may suffer a lot of losses when bonds are sold off in the future. In the next few quarters, the imbalance between supply and demand of U.S. bonds will intensify, inflationary pressures will rise, and the Federal Reserve will be forced to buy more Treasury Bond. If the economy accelerates in the future, the Fed rate hike. It is impossible to judge how much the dollar will weaken now, but historically we can refer to the situation in the 1970s. Regarding whether the Federal Reserve can control interest rate increases, Dalio believes:</p><p>Referring to history, the current money printing behavior of the Federal Reserve is controlled. The advantage of the United States is that the US dollar is the global reserve currency. Now that the debt level is very high, the gap between the rich and the poor caused by money printing has caused problems. Future investments have to be invested in the production sector, and I don't see it now. If rate hike, the stock market will suffer. The portfolio must be diversified enough, including stocks, bonds, etc., preferably all over the world. When asked about his investment views on gold and Bitcoin, Dalio believes:</p><p>It is still recommended to invest 5% of the funds in gold. It is not recommended to hold cash. Gold and silver are still the central bank's reserve means. In order to diversify your investment portfolio, it is best to invest in many aspects, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin has made great progress in the past 10 years, but there are still great risks. In order to diversify your investment portfolio, it is best to invest in many aspects, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin has made great progress in the past decade, but there are also great risks. Regarding the question of whether the current commodity is in a super cycle, Dalio believes that:</p><p>To distinguish between supply and demand-triggered inflation, the current rise in commodities may be triggered by monetary inflation. Monetary inflation usually happens when the economy is weak. I don't think there is a commodity supercycle now, and demand is still weak now. When asked what Chinese assets he likes best, Dalio said frankly:</p><p>Investors need to pursue balanced investments and then make tactical adjustments. In most cases, investors need to find their own balance and build an all-weather portfolio.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dalio: There will be a bull market in China, and I don't think there will be a super cycle for commodities</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDalio: There will be a bull market in China, and I don't think there will be a super cycle for commodities\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 22:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of March 22, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, author of Principles and \"godfather of investment\", talked to Wall Street. Dalio expressed his views on issues of concern to investors such as whether rising U.S. bond yields will end the 40-year bull market in bonds and whether commodities are in a new super cycle.</p><p>Dalio said that the current trend is very clear. China is rising, the RMB is internationalizing, and China's bonds and stock markets will surpass western markets in the next 10 years. At present, the level of global allocation to China is still low. Considering China's outstanding performance in the pandemic, overseas funds will flow to China.</p><p>Dalio believes that the 40-year bull market of U.S. debt may be coming to an end, and short-term debt is not a good choice at present. Considering the rise and fall of great powers, science and technology and natural disasters are important influencing factors. In terms of technology, semiconductors and biotechnology have good investment opportunities. Network security also needs to be focused on in the next five years.</p><p>When talking about whether the rapid rise in U.S. bond yields will end the 40-year bull market in bonds, Dalio told Wall Street News:</p><p>Interest rates in western countries are relatively low or even negative. If you invest now, investors will not be able to recover their principal after waiting for 50 years, and at the same time, they will not be able to meet the requirements of pension funds. At present, the bond market has not yet entered the end of the cycle, and investors may suffer a lot of losses when bonds are sold off in the future. In the next few quarters, the imbalance between supply and demand of U.S. bonds will intensify, inflationary pressures will rise, and the Federal Reserve will be forced to buy more Treasury Bond. If the economy accelerates in the future, the Fed rate hike. It is impossible to judge how much the dollar will weaken now, but historically we can refer to the situation in the 1970s. Regarding whether the Federal Reserve can control interest rate increases, Dalio believes:</p><p>Referring to history, the current money printing behavior of the Federal Reserve is controlled. The advantage of the United States is that the US dollar is the global reserve currency. Now that the debt level is very high, the gap between the rich and the poor caused by money printing has caused problems. Future investments have to be invested in the production sector, and I don't see it now. If rate hike, the stock market will suffer. The portfolio must be diversified enough, including stocks, bonds, etc., preferably all over the world. When asked about his investment views on gold and Bitcoin, Dalio believes:</p><p>It is still recommended to invest 5% of the funds in gold. It is not recommended to hold cash. Gold and silver are still the central bank's reserve means. In order to diversify your investment portfolio, it is best to invest in many aspects, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin has made great progress in the past 10 years, but there are still great risks. In order to diversify your investment portfolio, it is best to invest in many aspects, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin has made great progress in the past decade, but there are also great risks. Regarding the question of whether the current commodity is in a super cycle, Dalio believes that:</p><p>To distinguish between supply and demand-triggered inflation, the current rise in commodities may be triggered by monetary inflation. Monetary inflation usually happens when the economy is weak. I don't think there is a commodity supercycle now, and demand is still weak now. When asked what Chinese assets he likes best, Dalio said frankly:</p><p>Investors need to pursue balanced investments and then make tactical adjustments. In most cases, investors need to find their own balance and build an all-weather portfolio.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624599\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624599","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1103659578","content_text":"3月22日晚，全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人、《原则》作者、“投资教父”瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）对话华尔街见闻。达利欧就美债收益率上升是否会终结债券40年牛市、商品是否处于新超级周期等投资者关心问题发表了他的看法。\n达利欧表示，目前的趋势非常清楚，中国正在崛起，人民币正在国际化，中国债券及股市在未来10年将超过西方市场。目前全球对于中国配置的水平依然较低。考虑到中国在疫情中的杰出表现，海外资金将流向中国。\n达利欧认为，美债40年的牛市可能要结束了，目前短债不是很好的选择。考虑大国兴衰，科技及天灾都是重要影响因素。科技方面，半导体、生物科技都有很好的投资机会。未来5年网络安全也需要重点关注。\n在谈及美债收益率的快速上涨是否会终结债券40年牛市，达利欧向华尔街见闻表示：\n\n 西方国家利率都比较低，甚至为负。如果现在进行投资，投资者等上50年也无法收回本金，同时更不能满足养老基金的要求。目前债市还没有进入周期的末端，未来债券遭遇抛售投资者可能损失很大。未来几个季度美债供需不平衡加剧，通胀压力将会升高，美联储将被迫买更多国债。如果未来经济加速，美联储加息。现在无法判断美元会走弱到什么程度，但历史上可以参考上个世纪70年代的状况。\n\n对于美联储是否能够控制利率上涨，达利欧认为：\n\n 参考历史，目前美联储的印钞行为是控制的。美国的优势在于美元是全球储备货币。现在债务水平已经非常高了，印钞带来的贫富差距已经产生问题。未来投资必须投资在生产领域，而我现在没有看到。如果加息的话，股市会受到影响。投资组合必须分散程度足够高，有股票债券等，最好还是分散在全球各地。\n\n在被问及对于黄金和比特币的投资看法时，达利欧认为：\n\n 依然建议拿出5%的资金投资黄金。不建议持有现金。黄金白银依然是央行的储备手段。为了让自己的投资组合多样化的话，最好进行多方面的投资，这也包括比特币。比特币在过去10年有很大发展，但依然有很大风险。为了让自己的投资组合多样化的话，最好进行多方面的投资，这也包括比特币。过去十年比特币取得了很大的发展，但是也有很大的风险。\n\n对于目前商品是否处于超级周期的提问，达利欧认为：\n\n 要区分供需引发的通胀，现在大宗商品的上涨可能是货币通胀引发的。货币通胀通常发生在经济很弱的时候。我不认为现在存在大宗商品超级周期，现在需求依然偏弱。\n\n在被问及最喜欢中国什么资产，达利欧坦言：\n\n 投资者需要追求平衡性的投资，然后进行战术性调整，大多数情况下投资者要找到自己的平衡性，建立全天候的组合。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":44,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.13","shortVersion":"4.35.13","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1103659578","isCrawlerRequest":true}