AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears

Seeking Alpha01-28

SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

BoonHuat
01-28
BoonHuat
Nice
TGBboon
01-28
TGBboon
yea, and this news came after my position hot SL. nice..

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101666415?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2025-01-28 14:44","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1101666415","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears","media":"Seeking Alpha","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1728464409321","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-28 14:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMD","symbol_name":"美国超微公司","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears","article_id":"1101666415","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101666415","pubTimestamp":1738046656,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1728464409321","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the s","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"translate_title":"AMD：当DeepSeek恐惧中退居二线成为首选","themeId":"b35366a73032ba192c71d6da6768bdf5","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":1.1},"content_text":"SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the strong momentum in data center revenues and the cyclical recovery in the gaming and embedded segments.AMD is one of my top picks in the market today.David BeckerIn a surprising turn of events, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is now on sale. The semiconductor company has greatly underperformed its closest peer and has not shown that it can keep up in the age of generative AI. But valuations will dictate the narrative at the end of the day, and AMD is priced at far lower expectations. I expect the stock to perform well even as it plays second fiddle, with elevated data center revenue growth being complemented by a cyclical recovery from the other business lines. The stock might even prove to be a dark horse winner from DeepSeek fears as customers aim to reduce infrastructure costs. I am upgrading AMD to a strong buy rating as it is one of my top picks in the market today.AMD Stock PriceI last covered AMD in January 2024, when I downgraded the stock due to my view that the market was overestimating its competitiveness relative to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). AMD has underperformed the broader market by around 30% since then but more importantly, has greatly outperformed NVDA with the latter nearly tripling over that same time period.Data by YChartsI retain the same view regarding AMD’s competitive positioning, but the lower valuations change everything.AMD Stock Key MetricsBefore the rise of generative AI, AMD was known as one of the leading semiconductor companies with a dominant market share in gaming and data centers. Nowadays, investors focus more on the data center business, with AMD being considered a distant second to NVDA.2024 Q3 PresentationI suspect that investors no longer retain the belief that AMD will eventually be able to catch up to NVDA, at least not nearly to the same extent as just a couple of years ago. NVDA’s head start with GPUs plus its proprietary CUDA coding language have proven to provide comfortable competitive advantages that should persist for years to come, as I expect considerable switching costs. Even so, AMD is finally appearing to benefit from its own data center renaissance.The latest quarter saw the company generate 18% YoY revenue growth to $6.8 billion (versus guidance of $6.7 billion), with non-GAAP operating margins rising 300bps to 25%.2024 Q3 PresentationThese strong results were driven almost entirely by the data center segment, with revenue growth growing 25% sequentially and rising 122% YoY. I note that the data center business has among the highest profit margins relative to the other businesses, leading to its hyperbolic growth to have an outsized impact on overall profit margins.2024 Q3 PresentationUnlike NVDA, which has seen booming data center revenues for a couple of years now, AMD did not see revenue growth accelerate until early 2024. Based on what I’ve seen from the data center segment in recent quarters, I expect 2025 to easily see at least 40% growth in data center revenues.Company FinancialsWhat’s more, at the Barclays global technology conference in December, CFO Jean Hu reminded investors that headwinds to the gaming and embedded businesses are now “behind us when we look ahead to 2025.” Indeed, — at the very least, AMD should benefit from easier comparables moving forward. These make me think that consensus estimates look rather conservative.AMD ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in cash versus $1.7 billion in debt, representing a solid net cash balance sheet.2024 Q3 PresentationLooking ahead, management has guided the company to see around $7.5 billion in revenue in the upcoming quarter (consensus calls for around $7.53 billion), representing around 20% YoY growth. This looks conservative to me given the upcoming recovery in the gaming and embedded segments, but the exact timing of that recovery is not so important.2024 Q3 PresentationOn the conference call, management noted expectations for data center GPU revenues to exceed $5 billion for the 2024 year. This was up from the prior $4.5 billion guidance given in the second quarter as well as the $2 billion guidance given at the start of the year. Management expects new product releases to help spur a recovery in the gaming segment, noting that they are “on track to launch the first RDNA 4 GPUs in early 2025.”Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?Many investors might have simply grown impatient waiting for an “Nvidia moment” that might never come. There is some irony as the stock falls today (Monday, January 27th) due to DeepSeek fears. Revelations that DeepSeek has been able to produce results comparable with OpenAI and others at a mere fraction of the cost have investors wondering if the cloud computing giants might end up reducing their CapEx budgets. That might somehow end up benefitting AMD, as these customers might eventually prefer the company's cheaper alternatives relative to NVDA. AMD recently traded hands at a reasonable 25x forward earnings.Seeking AlphaConsensus estimates call for around 20% annual revenue growth over the coming years. It is worth noting that NVDA trades at just around 7.4x 2033 consensus estimates.Seeking AlphaI expect long-term net margins to hover at around 30% if not higher. That places the current valuation at around 20x long-term earnings, equating to roughly a 1x price to earnings growth ratio (“PEG ratio”). I expect AMD to deliver growth more in the 25% to 30% range, which may allow for the PEG ratio to expand to the 1.5x level, implying around 50% potential upside over the next 12 months.AMD Stock RisksI do not expect a great deal of cyclical risk, given that the company’s cyclical segments are already operating at cyclical lows. The stock’s valuation is quite undemanding, and I am expecting mainly surprises to the upside. That said, AMD might be simply being disrupted by NVDA, with any near-term growth to prove fleeting. I think that AMD can still show solid growth at its considerably lower revenue base, but it looks like the main risk is the reliability of data center revenue growth to steer the ship over the long term.I should also note that growth stocks are looking bubbly again. Over half of the names in my coverage at Best of Breed Growth Stocks are rated “hold” or “sell.” Just two years ago, over 80% were rated “buy” or “strong buy.”Best of Breed Growth StocksAMD looks compelling here, but it is unlikely to be immune to broader market volatility.AMD Stock ConclusionMany investors may suspect that an AI bubble has formed, and they are probably right. Yet, AMD is still looking attractive here as I expect a great deal of surprise potential ahead with data center revenues showing accelerated growth and the rest seeing a cyclical recovery. The company has a strong balance sheet and the valuation is undemanding. AMD is one of my top picks and a core holding in the Best of Breed Growth Stocks Portfolio.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":397409573732960,"gmtCreate":1738048757264,"gmtModify":1738048760893,"author":{"id":"3574549633778650","authorId":"3574549633778650","name":"BoonHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64154b666040668c472fc3731becde7","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574549633778650","authorIdStr":"3574549633778650"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397409573732960","repostId":1101666415,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101666415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738046656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101666415?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-28 14:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101666415","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the s","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3117077511\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>There&#39;s an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn&#39;t part of it.</p></li><li><p>Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.</p></li><li><p>Consensus estimates look too conservative given the strong momentum in data center revenues and the cyclical recovery in the gaming and embedded segments.</p></li><li><p>AMD is one of my top picks in the market today.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/914ee6c6383057a42f084264c4805acf\" alt=\"David Becker\" title=\"David Becker\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"499\"/><span>David Becker</span></p><p>In a surprising turn of events, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</a> is now on sale. The semiconductor company has greatly underperformed its closest peer and has not shown that it can keep up in the age of generative AI. But valuations will dictate the narrative at the end of the day, and AMD is priced at far lower expectations. I expect the stock to perform well even as it plays second fiddle, with elevated data center revenue growth being complemented by a cyclical recovery from the other business lines. The stock might even prove to be a dark horse winner from DeepSeek fears as customers aim to reduce infrastructure costs. I am upgrading AMD to a strong buy rating as it is one of my top picks in the market today.</p><h2 id=\"id_113181275\">AMD Stock Price</h2><p>I last covered AMD in January 2024, when I downgraded the stock due to my view that the market was overestimating its competitiveness relative to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). AMD has underperformed the broader market by around 30% since then but more importantly, has greatly outperformed NVDA with the latter nearly tripling over that same time period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2351e3c9e2d89a148b255b1ff51033be\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I retain the same view regarding AMD’s competitive positioning, but the lower valuations change everything.</p><h2 id=\"id_2989585945\">AMD Stock Key Metrics</h2><p>Before the rise of generative AI, AMD was known as one of the leading semiconductor companies with a dominant market share in gaming and data centers. Nowadays, investors focus more on the data center business, with AMD being considered a distant second to NVDA.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef9c0861b4f4fd5dd6f49032f0e8ee5f\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"585\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>I suspect that investors no longer retain the belief that AMD will eventually be able to catch up to NVDA, at least not nearly to the same extent as just a couple of years ago. NVDA’s head start with GPUs plus its proprietary CUDA coding language have proven to provide comfortable competitive advantages that should persist for years to come, as I expect considerable switching costs. Even so, AMD is finally appearing to benefit from its own data center renaissance.</p><p>The latest quarter saw the company generate 18% YoY revenue growth to $6.8 billion (versus guidance of $6.7 billion), with non-GAAP operating margins rising 300bps to 25%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6aa40dd7303dbb65be5e5852f3831e0d\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"640\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>These strong results were driven almost entirely by the data center segment, with revenue growth growing 25% sequentially and rising 122% YoY. I note that the data center business has among the highest profit margins relative to the other businesses, leading to its hyperbolic growth to have an outsized impact on overall profit margins.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6eac8a75e0e6c3d0ae94eee21915f439\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"677\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Unlike NVDA, which has seen booming data center revenues for a couple of years now, AMD did not see revenue growth accelerate until early 2024. Based on what I’ve seen from the data center segment in recent quarters, I expect 2025 to easily see at least 40% growth in data center revenues.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40802578ebd7cfb0a1fa77a5b8347601\" alt=\"Company Financials\" title=\"Company Financials\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"167\"/><span>Company Financials</span></p><p>What’s more, at the Barclays global technology conference in December, CFO Jean Hu reminded investors that headwinds to the gaming and embedded businesses are now “behind us when we look ahead to 2025.” Indeed, — at the very least, AMD should benefit from easier comparables moving forward. These make me think that consensus estimates look rather conservative.</p><p>AMD ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in cash versus $1.7 billion in debt, representing a solid net cash balance sheet.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acd7c591b24472b1da8fa63f84312407\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"637\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Looking ahead, management has guided the company to see around $7.5 billion in revenue in the upcoming quarter (consensus calls for around $7.53 billion), representing around 20% YoY growth. This looks conservative to me given the upcoming recovery in the gaming and embedded segments, but the exact timing of that recovery is not so important.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d660294e98a0697f677e3878ebe50ba4\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"550\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>On the conference call, management noted expectations for data center GPU revenues to exceed $5 billion for the 2024 year. This was up from the prior $4.5 billion guidance given in the second quarter as well as the $2 billion guidance given at the start of the year. Management expects new product releases to help spur a recovery in the gaming segment, noting that they are “on track to launch the first RDNA 4 GPUs in early 2025.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2411023989\">Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</h2><p>Many investors might have simply grown impatient waiting for an “Nvidia moment” that might never come. There is some irony as the stock falls today (Monday, January 27th) due to DeepSeek fears. Revelations that DeepSeek has been able to produce results comparable with OpenAI and others at a mere fraction of the cost have investors wondering if the cloud computing giants might end up reducing their CapEx budgets. That might somehow end up benefitting AMD, as these customers might eventually prefer the company&#39;s cheaper alternatives relative to NVDA. AMD recently traded hands at a reasonable 25x forward earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15f5c1f5fec02308c9a0ef004a6663d1\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"249\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Consensus estimates call for around 20% annual revenue growth over the coming years. It is worth noting that NVDA trades at just around 7.4x 2033 consensus estimates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9071c9d8c5c949f5e1084cc35b8d2dfa\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"233\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>I expect long-term net margins to hover at around 30% if not higher. That places the current valuation at around 20x long-term earnings, equating to roughly a 1x price to earnings growth ratio (“PEG ratio”). I expect AMD to deliver growth more in the 25% to 30% range, which may allow for the PEG ratio to expand to the 1.5x level, implying around 50% potential upside over the next 12 months.</p><h2 id=\"id_3975279521\">AMD Stock Risks</h2><p>I do not expect a great deal of cyclical risk, given that the company’s cyclical segments are already operating at cyclical lows. The stock’s valuation is quite undemanding, and I am expecting mainly surprises to the upside. That said, AMD might be simply being disrupted by NVDA, with any near-term growth to prove fleeting. I think that AMD can still show solid growth at its considerably lower revenue base, but it looks like the main risk is the reliability of data center revenue growth to steer the ship over the long term.</p><p>I should also note that growth stocks are looking bubbly again. Over half of the names in my coverage at Best of Breed Growth Stocks are rated “hold” or “sell.” Just two years ago, over 80% were rated “buy” or “strong buy.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a7a25776434d9270ef9fdd58f140c95\" alt=\"Best of Breed Growth Stocks\" title=\"Best of Breed Growth Stocks\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"731\"/><span>Best of Breed Growth Stocks</span></p><p>AMD looks compelling here, but it is unlikely to be immune to broader market volatility.</p><h2 id=\"id_2058671155\">AMD Stock Conclusion</h2><p>Many investors may suspect that an AI bubble has formed, and they are probably right. Yet, AMD is still looking attractive here as I expect a great deal of surprise potential ahead with data center revenues showing accelerated growth and the rest seeing a cyclical recovery. The company has a strong balance sheet and the valuation is undemanding. AMD is one of my top picks and a core holding in the Best of Breed Growth Stocks Portfolio.<br/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-28 14:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101666415","content_text":"SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the strong momentum in data center revenues and the cyclical recovery in the gaming and embedded segments.AMD is one of my top picks in the market today.David BeckerIn a surprising turn of events, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is now on sale. The semiconductor company has greatly underperformed its closest peer and has not shown that it can keep up in the age of generative AI. But valuations will dictate the narrative at the end of the day, and AMD is priced at far lower expectations. I expect the stock to perform well even as it plays second fiddle, with elevated data center revenue growth being complemented by a cyclical recovery from the other business lines. The stock might even prove to be a dark horse winner from DeepSeek fears as customers aim to reduce infrastructure costs. I am upgrading AMD to a strong buy rating as it is one of my top picks in the market today.AMD Stock PriceI last covered AMD in January 2024, when I downgraded the stock due to my view that the market was overestimating its competitiveness relative to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). AMD has underperformed the broader market by around 30% since then but more importantly, has greatly outperformed NVDA with the latter nearly tripling over that same time period.Data by YChartsI retain the same view regarding AMD’s competitive positioning, but the lower valuations change everything.AMD Stock Key MetricsBefore the rise of generative AI, AMD was known as one of the leading semiconductor companies with a dominant market share in gaming and data centers. Nowadays, investors focus more on the data center business, with AMD being considered a distant second to NVDA.2024 Q3 PresentationI suspect that investors no longer retain the belief that AMD will eventually be able to catch up to NVDA, at least not nearly to the same extent as just a couple of years ago. NVDA’s head start with GPUs plus its proprietary CUDA coding language have proven to provide comfortable competitive advantages that should persist for years to come, as I expect considerable switching costs. Even so, AMD is finally appearing to benefit from its own data center renaissance.The latest quarter saw the company generate 18% YoY revenue growth to $6.8 billion (versus guidance of $6.7 billion), with non-GAAP operating margins rising 300bps to 25%.2024 Q3 PresentationThese strong results were driven almost entirely by the data center segment, with revenue growth growing 25% sequentially and rising 122% YoY. I note that the data center business has among the highest profit margins relative to the other businesses, leading to its hyperbolic growth to have an outsized impact on overall profit margins.2024 Q3 PresentationUnlike NVDA, which has seen booming data center revenues for a couple of years now, AMD did not see revenue growth accelerate until early 2024. Based on what I’ve seen from the data center segment in recent quarters, I expect 2025 to easily see at least 40% growth in data center revenues.Company FinancialsWhat’s more, at the Barclays global technology conference in December, CFO Jean Hu reminded investors that headwinds to the gaming and embedded businesses are now “behind us when we look ahead to 2025.” Indeed, — at the very least, AMD should benefit from easier comparables moving forward. These make me think that consensus estimates look rather conservative.AMD ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in cash versus $1.7 billion in debt, representing a solid net cash balance sheet.2024 Q3 PresentationLooking ahead, management has guided the company to see around $7.5 billion in revenue in the upcoming quarter (consensus calls for around $7.53 billion), representing around 20% YoY growth. This looks conservative to me given the upcoming recovery in the gaming and embedded segments, but the exact timing of that recovery is not so important.2024 Q3 PresentationOn the conference call, management noted expectations for data center GPU revenues to exceed $5 billion for the 2024 year. This was up from the prior $4.5 billion guidance given in the second quarter as well as the $2 billion guidance given at the start of the year. Management expects new product releases to help spur a recovery in the gaming segment, noting that they are “on track to launch the first RDNA 4 GPUs in early 2025.”Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?Many investors might have simply grown impatient waiting for an “Nvidia moment” that might never come. There is some irony as the stock falls today (Monday, January 27th) due to DeepSeek fears. Revelations that DeepSeek has been able to produce results comparable with OpenAI and others at a mere fraction of the cost have investors wondering if the cloud computing giants might end up reducing their CapEx budgets. That might somehow end up benefitting AMD, as these customers might eventually prefer the company's cheaper alternatives relative to NVDA. AMD recently traded hands at a reasonable 25x forward earnings.Seeking AlphaConsensus estimates call for around 20% annual revenue growth over the coming years. It is worth noting that NVDA trades at just around 7.4x 2033 consensus estimates.Seeking AlphaI expect long-term net margins to hover at around 30% if not higher. That places the current valuation at around 20x long-term earnings, equating to roughly a 1x price to earnings growth ratio (“PEG ratio”). I expect AMD to deliver growth more in the 25% to 30% range, which may allow for the PEG ratio to expand to the 1.5x level, implying around 50% potential upside over the next 12 months.AMD Stock RisksI do not expect a great deal of cyclical risk, given that the company’s cyclical segments are already operating at cyclical lows. The stock’s valuation is quite undemanding, and I am expecting mainly surprises to the upside. That said, AMD might be simply being disrupted by NVDA, with any near-term growth to prove fleeting. I think that AMD can still show solid growth at its considerably lower revenue base, but it looks like the main risk is the reliability of data center revenue growth to steer the ship over the long term.I should also note that growth stocks are looking bubbly again. Over half of the names in my coverage at Best of Breed Growth Stocks are rated “hold” or “sell.” Just two years ago, over 80% were rated “buy” or “strong buy.”Best of Breed Growth StocksAMD looks compelling here, but it is unlikely to be immune to broader market volatility.AMD Stock ConclusionMany investors may suspect that an AI bubble has formed, and they are probably right. Yet, AMD is still looking attractive here as I expect a great deal of surprise potential ahead with data center revenues showing accelerated growth and the rest seeing a cyclical recovery. The company has a strong balance sheet and the valuation is undemanding. AMD is one of my top picks and a core holding in the Best of Breed Growth Stocks Portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":397405175865944,"gmtCreate":1738047975942,"gmtModify":1738047979854,"author":{"id":"3564671343598487","authorId":"3564671343598487","name":"TGBboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ba866616367e4cdc06729fd1cff76e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3564671343598487","authorIdStr":"3564671343598487"},"htmlText":"yea, and this news came after my position hot SL. nice..","listText":"yea, and this news came after my position hot SL. nice..","text":"yea, and this news came after my position hot SL. nice..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397405175865944","repostId":1101666415,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101666415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738046656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101666415?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-28 14:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101666415","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the s","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3117077511\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>There&#39;s an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn&#39;t part of it.</p></li><li><p>Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.</p></li><li><p>Consensus estimates look too conservative given the strong momentum in data center revenues and the cyclical recovery in the gaming and embedded segments.</p></li><li><p>AMD is one of my top picks in the market today.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/914ee6c6383057a42f084264c4805acf\" alt=\"David Becker\" title=\"David Becker\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"499\"/><span>David Becker</span></p><p>In a surprising turn of events, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</a> is now on sale. The semiconductor company has greatly underperformed its closest peer and has not shown that it can keep up in the age of generative AI. But valuations will dictate the narrative at the end of the day, and AMD is priced at far lower expectations. I expect the stock to perform well even as it plays second fiddle, with elevated data center revenue growth being complemented by a cyclical recovery from the other business lines. The stock might even prove to be a dark horse winner from DeepSeek fears as customers aim to reduce infrastructure costs. I am upgrading AMD to a strong buy rating as it is one of my top picks in the market today.</p><h2 id=\"id_113181275\">AMD Stock Price</h2><p>I last covered AMD in January 2024, when I downgraded the stock due to my view that the market was overestimating its competitiveness relative to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). AMD has underperformed the broader market by around 30% since then but more importantly, has greatly outperformed NVDA with the latter nearly tripling over that same time period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2351e3c9e2d89a148b255b1ff51033be\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I retain the same view regarding AMD’s competitive positioning, but the lower valuations change everything.</p><h2 id=\"id_2989585945\">AMD Stock Key Metrics</h2><p>Before the rise of generative AI, AMD was known as one of the leading semiconductor companies with a dominant market share in gaming and data centers. Nowadays, investors focus more on the data center business, with AMD being considered a distant second to NVDA.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef9c0861b4f4fd5dd6f49032f0e8ee5f\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"585\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>I suspect that investors no longer retain the belief that AMD will eventually be able to catch up to NVDA, at least not nearly to the same extent as just a couple of years ago. NVDA’s head start with GPUs plus its proprietary CUDA coding language have proven to provide comfortable competitive advantages that should persist for years to come, as I expect considerable switching costs. Even so, AMD is finally appearing to benefit from its own data center renaissance.</p><p>The latest quarter saw the company generate 18% YoY revenue growth to $6.8 billion (versus guidance of $6.7 billion), with non-GAAP operating margins rising 300bps to 25%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6aa40dd7303dbb65be5e5852f3831e0d\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"640\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>These strong results were driven almost entirely by the data center segment, with revenue growth growing 25% sequentially and rising 122% YoY. I note that the data center business has among the highest profit margins relative to the other businesses, leading to its hyperbolic growth to have an outsized impact on overall profit margins.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6eac8a75e0e6c3d0ae94eee21915f439\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"677\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Unlike NVDA, which has seen booming data center revenues for a couple of years now, AMD did not see revenue growth accelerate until early 2024. Based on what I’ve seen from the data center segment in recent quarters, I expect 2025 to easily see at least 40% growth in data center revenues.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40802578ebd7cfb0a1fa77a5b8347601\" alt=\"Company Financials\" title=\"Company Financials\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"167\"/><span>Company Financials</span></p><p>What’s more, at the Barclays global technology conference in December, CFO Jean Hu reminded investors that headwinds to the gaming and embedded businesses are now “behind us when we look ahead to 2025.” Indeed, — at the very least, AMD should benefit from easier comparables moving forward. These make me think that consensus estimates look rather conservative.</p><p>AMD ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in cash versus $1.7 billion in debt, representing a solid net cash balance sheet.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acd7c591b24472b1da8fa63f84312407\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"637\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Looking ahead, management has guided the company to see around $7.5 billion in revenue in the upcoming quarter (consensus calls for around $7.53 billion), representing around 20% YoY growth. This looks conservative to me given the upcoming recovery in the gaming and embedded segments, but the exact timing of that recovery is not so important.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d660294e98a0697f677e3878ebe50ba4\" alt=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" title=\"2024 Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"550\"/><span>2024 Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>On the conference call, management noted expectations for data center GPU revenues to exceed $5 billion for the 2024 year. This was up from the prior $4.5 billion guidance given in the second quarter as well as the $2 billion guidance given at the start of the year. Management expects new product releases to help spur a recovery in the gaming segment, noting that they are “on track to launch the first RDNA 4 GPUs in early 2025.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2411023989\">Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</h2><p>Many investors might have simply grown impatient waiting for an “Nvidia moment” that might never come. There is some irony as the stock falls today (Monday, January 27th) due to DeepSeek fears. Revelations that DeepSeek has been able to produce results comparable with OpenAI and others at a mere fraction of the cost have investors wondering if the cloud computing giants might end up reducing their CapEx budgets. That might somehow end up benefitting AMD, as these customers might eventually prefer the company&#39;s cheaper alternatives relative to NVDA. AMD recently traded hands at a reasonable 25x forward earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15f5c1f5fec02308c9a0ef004a6663d1\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"249\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Consensus estimates call for around 20% annual revenue growth over the coming years. It is worth noting that NVDA trades at just around 7.4x 2033 consensus estimates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9071c9d8c5c949f5e1084cc35b8d2dfa\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"233\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>I expect long-term net margins to hover at around 30% if not higher. That places the current valuation at around 20x long-term earnings, equating to roughly a 1x price to earnings growth ratio (“PEG ratio”). I expect AMD to deliver growth more in the 25% to 30% range, which may allow for the PEG ratio to expand to the 1.5x level, implying around 50% potential upside over the next 12 months.</p><h2 id=\"id_3975279521\">AMD Stock Risks</h2><p>I do not expect a great deal of cyclical risk, given that the company’s cyclical segments are already operating at cyclical lows. The stock’s valuation is quite undemanding, and I am expecting mainly surprises to the upside. That said, AMD might be simply being disrupted by NVDA, with any near-term growth to prove fleeting. I think that AMD can still show solid growth at its considerably lower revenue base, but it looks like the main risk is the reliability of data center revenue growth to steer the ship over the long term.</p><p>I should also note that growth stocks are looking bubbly again. Over half of the names in my coverage at Best of Breed Growth Stocks are rated “hold” or “sell.” Just two years ago, over 80% were rated “buy” or “strong buy.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a7a25776434d9270ef9fdd58f140c95\" alt=\"Best of Breed Growth Stocks\" title=\"Best of Breed Growth Stocks\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"731\"/><span>Best of Breed Growth Stocks</span></p><p>AMD looks compelling here, but it is unlikely to be immune to broader market volatility.</p><h2 id=\"id_2058671155\">AMD Stock Conclusion</h2><p>Many investors may suspect that an AI bubble has formed, and they are probably right. Yet, AMD is still looking attractive here as I expect a great deal of surprise potential ahead with data center revenues showing accelerated growth and the rest seeing a cyclical recovery. The company has a strong balance sheet and the valuation is undemanding. AMD is one of my top picks and a core holding in the Best of Breed Growth Stocks Portfolio.<br/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: When Second Fiddle Is The Top Pick Amidst DeepSeek Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-28 14:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752266-amd-when-second-fiddle-is-the-top-pick-amidst-deepseek-fears","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101666415","content_text":"SummaryThere's an AI bubble, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. isn't part of it.Everyone is focused on Nvidia, but AMD is finally having its moment.Consensus estimates look too conservative given the strong momentum in data center revenues and the cyclical recovery in the gaming and embedded segments.AMD is one of my top picks in the market today.David BeckerIn a surprising turn of events, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is now on sale. The semiconductor company has greatly underperformed its closest peer and has not shown that it can keep up in the age of generative AI. But valuations will dictate the narrative at the end of the day, and AMD is priced at far lower expectations. I expect the stock to perform well even as it plays second fiddle, with elevated data center revenue growth being complemented by a cyclical recovery from the other business lines. The stock might even prove to be a dark horse winner from DeepSeek fears as customers aim to reduce infrastructure costs. I am upgrading AMD to a strong buy rating as it is one of my top picks in the market today.AMD Stock PriceI last covered AMD in January 2024, when I downgraded the stock due to my view that the market was overestimating its competitiveness relative to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). AMD has underperformed the broader market by around 30% since then but more importantly, has greatly outperformed NVDA with the latter nearly tripling over that same time period.Data by YChartsI retain the same view regarding AMD’s competitive positioning, but the lower valuations change everything.AMD Stock Key MetricsBefore the rise of generative AI, AMD was known as one of the leading semiconductor companies with a dominant market share in gaming and data centers. Nowadays, investors focus more on the data center business, with AMD being considered a distant second to NVDA.2024 Q3 PresentationI suspect that investors no longer retain the belief that AMD will eventually be able to catch up to NVDA, at least not nearly to the same extent as just a couple of years ago. NVDA’s head start with GPUs plus its proprietary CUDA coding language have proven to provide comfortable competitive advantages that should persist for years to come, as I expect considerable switching costs. Even so, AMD is finally appearing to benefit from its own data center renaissance.The latest quarter saw the company generate 18% YoY revenue growth to $6.8 billion (versus guidance of $6.7 billion), with non-GAAP operating margins rising 300bps to 25%.2024 Q3 PresentationThese strong results were driven almost entirely by the data center segment, with revenue growth growing 25% sequentially and rising 122% YoY. I note that the data center business has among the highest profit margins relative to the other businesses, leading to its hyperbolic growth to have an outsized impact on overall profit margins.2024 Q3 PresentationUnlike NVDA, which has seen booming data center revenues for a couple of years now, AMD did not see revenue growth accelerate until early 2024. Based on what I’ve seen from the data center segment in recent quarters, I expect 2025 to easily see at least 40% growth in data center revenues.Company FinancialsWhat’s more, at the Barclays global technology conference in December, CFO Jean Hu reminded investors that headwinds to the gaming and embedded businesses are now “behind us when we look ahead to 2025.” Indeed, — at the very least, AMD should benefit from easier comparables moving forward. These make me think that consensus estimates look rather conservative.AMD ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in cash versus $1.7 billion in debt, representing a solid net cash balance sheet.2024 Q3 PresentationLooking ahead, management has guided the company to see around $7.5 billion in revenue in the upcoming quarter (consensus calls for around $7.53 billion), representing around 20% YoY growth. This looks conservative to me given the upcoming recovery in the gaming and embedded segments, but the exact timing of that recovery is not so important.2024 Q3 PresentationOn the conference call, management noted expectations for data center GPU revenues to exceed $5 billion for the 2024 year. This was up from the prior $4.5 billion guidance given in the second quarter as well as the $2 billion guidance given at the start of the year. Management expects new product releases to help spur a recovery in the gaming segment, noting that they are “on track to launch the first RDNA 4 GPUs in early 2025.”Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?Many investors might have simply grown impatient waiting for an “Nvidia moment” that might never come. There is some irony as the stock falls today (Monday, January 27th) due to DeepSeek fears. Revelations that DeepSeek has been able to produce results comparable with OpenAI and others at a mere fraction of the cost have investors wondering if the cloud computing giants might end up reducing their CapEx budgets. That might somehow end up benefitting AMD, as these customers might eventually prefer the company's cheaper alternatives relative to NVDA. AMD recently traded hands at a reasonable 25x forward earnings.Seeking AlphaConsensus estimates call for around 20% annual revenue growth over the coming years. It is worth noting that NVDA trades at just around 7.4x 2033 consensus estimates.Seeking AlphaI expect long-term net margins to hover at around 30% if not higher. That places the current valuation at around 20x long-term earnings, equating to roughly a 1x price to earnings growth ratio (“PEG ratio”). I expect AMD to deliver growth more in the 25% to 30% range, which may allow for the PEG ratio to expand to the 1.5x level, implying around 50% potential upside over the next 12 months.AMD Stock RisksI do not expect a great deal of cyclical risk, given that the company’s cyclical segments are already operating at cyclical lows. The stock’s valuation is quite undemanding, and I am expecting mainly surprises to the upside. That said, AMD might be simply being disrupted by NVDA, with any near-term growth to prove fleeting. I think that AMD can still show solid growth at its considerably lower revenue base, but it looks like the main risk is the reliability of data center revenue growth to steer the ship over the long term.I should also note that growth stocks are looking bubbly again. Over half of the names in my coverage at Best of Breed Growth Stocks are rated “hold” or “sell.” Just two years ago, over 80% were rated “buy” or “strong buy.”Best of Breed Growth StocksAMD looks compelling here, but it is unlikely to be immune to broader market volatility.AMD Stock ConclusionMany investors may suspect that an AI bubble has formed, and they are probably right. Yet, AMD is still looking attractive here as I expect a great deal of surprise potential ahead with data center revenues showing accelerated growth and the rest seeing a cyclical recovery. The company has a strong balance sheet and the valuation is undemanding. AMD is one of my top picks and a core holding in the Best of Breed Growth Stocks Portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.30.2","shortVersion":"4.30.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1101666415"}