NVIDIA's Q1 Earnings on Horizon, Citi Forecasts Revenue to Exceed Expectations by $1.4 Billion

Deep News03:23

NVIDIA is scheduled to report its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings after the market closes on May 20. In a preview report released on Monday, Citi projected that the company's revenue for the quarter will reach approximately $73 billion. This forecast exceeds the market's consensus estimate of around $71.8 billion by about $1.4 billion.

Supply-Demand Imbalance Supports Performance Citi analyst Atif Malik noted that the supply-demand imbalance for NVIDIA's Blackwell and Rubin AI chips remains "highly favorable," which is the core factor supporting the expectation for outperformance. Market demand continues to be robust, with capital expenditures on AI infrastructure by hyperscalers projected to nearly double by 2026, significantly surpassing Wall Street's previous estimates.

From a product structure perspective, the Blackwell platform is expected to account for over 70% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2026, further solidifying its dominant position. Although the Rubin series faces potential shipment delays, samples have already been sent to customers, and the series is still anticipated to launch as planned in the second half of 2026.

Market Expectations and Potential Risks Currently, Wall Street's consensus estimates for NVIDIA's first quarter are earnings per share of $1.74, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 115%, and revenue of about $78.62 billion, a year-over-year increase of roughly 78%.

However, analysts have also highlighted potential risks: export controls have effectively reduced NVIDIA's market share in China "to virtually zero." In recent interviews, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's responses to questions about competition and supply chain issues have been described as "evasive." Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, on the other hand, believes the commercialization phase of AI is "just beginning."

Ahead of the earnings report, several analysts have raised their price targets for NVIDIA: Susquehanna increased its target from $250 to $275, while Citi had previously set a target price of $190.

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